We have done our modelling on what is happening with reasonable sized own occ DC schemes , some standalone DC and some part of an hybrid scheme with a DB scheme being the other part of the “mongrel” as hybrids are described by people I know close to them.

The number of “DC memberships” includes members who are no longer in employment (deferred).

Aon’s view of DC master trusts may include CDC master trusts which is another way of describing the UMES CDC structure last October 22nd. It ought to – as Aon will be looking at expanding their DC master trust which needs to get to £25bn by 2035 and it’s pending CDC scheme which they intend to launch in 2028.

These schemes look to be most vulnerable to closure. Gallagher’s survey of employers paying into DC schemes was focussed on the impetus to review by the promises of CDC. Their survey found that 76% of employers were going to review their DC schemes.

The firm’s 2026 Defined Contribution Pension and Financial Wellbeing Survey, which gathered responses from pension providers with approximately £98bn in assets under management (AUM) and 1.2 million DC savers, found 51% of respondents said they would consider moving away from their current DC structure.

This is not surprising as going on their own doesn’t seem to be delivering much value

What kind of master trust then?

Aon’s conclusions are that more than half of the employers they could access (we can assume their clients) saw the areas schemes might be “falling short”

As employers and trustees continue to focus on improving pension outcomes, financial wellbeing and value for money, Aon’s latest research explores how workplace DC pension arrangements are evolving and where further action may be needed.

The research highlights emerging priorities, identifies areas where schemes may be falling short, and outlines practical actions to help improve outcomes for members.

So what is the “Latest Expected Regulatory Timetable for DC Pension Plans”? It includes a timetable for “Retirement – CDC” but nothing  for workplace CDC (UMES).

The most common approach is to align the pension plan with
competitors (53 percent), which is ahead of designing a plan to
provide sufficient funds for employees to retire at a reasonable
age (23 percent), closely followed by wanting to offer a market
leading pension (18 percent).

This suggests to me that there aren’t going to be a lot of these schemes that are going to be striving to be different, many more who will follow trends. This is partially in line with our research but only partly. Senior executives are taking the views of their unions very seriously. These unions have not been sharing with us much admiration for DC master trusts. They like the idea of CDC master trusts especially if they can have oversite of what is happening behind the scenes with trustees and proprietors.

So it will be interesting to find out how members and their representatives behave if employers decide to set out without consulting them (we assume a high proportion of these employers are unionised)

What is clear from it’s research is that Aon have identified a collapse in Sole Employer occupational DC schemes over the next five years

Right now , only 2% of employers are looking to offer CDC pensions for staff. We think switching to a CDC just for yourself (a Royal Mail replica) will not be popular. But popularity for participating in a CDC master trusts will be much higher!