When I posted this library, the actuaries who’ve blogged had no central library of their work. So I published their articles on my blog and curated them here. All the articles they’ve written have also been published on linked in – since Easter I have been building up this resource and I’m pleased to say that the actuaries now have their own website where you can see the originals together. I will continue to post blogs form the COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group here .
To kick off – here’s a message from Stuart McDonald who provides me with content from the group
If you have some spare time over the bank holiday weekend, here is the maths lecture you didn’t know you wanted to watch.
With thanks to @PidginPosting for sharing. https://t.co/au0fyf7tRR
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) April 10, 2020
Covid19 an actuary’s view This blog is mostly by Matthew Edwards and lays out the basic assumptions that actuaries were making about the spread of the virus, before interventions occurred. Knowing what we now know, the thought that we had a 1 in 2 chance of being infected in June, makes my sitting inside right now – easier to understand!
Has over half of the UK already been exposed to Covid19? Here Stuart McDonald explains why he is sceptical of the claims of a group of researchers from Oxford University that many of us are immune. He points out that without better evidence, this could lead to complacency – in case you were making for the door.
Here Nicola Oliver answers our question “What is a Coronavirus”. In which we learn it is not a very nice virus at all.
Here is Matt Fletcher calling into question some dodgy conclusions from the Electical Department of Imperial College; Social distancing – the UK is not like China
Next up is Adrian Pinington’s article explaining the difference between Suppression and Mitigation and how our Government changed horses mid-stream.
Joseph Lu gives us a history of the modelling that has happened so far.
In this- our first co-authored update, Nicola and Matt give us a weekly update at the beginning of April.
Matthew is back looking at the myth that most of Covid 19’s victims are already on death row.
Here are Mohammed Khan and GaryMcInally on how actuaries have responded to a call to arms
Matt Fletcher and Dan Ryan round up the news for the second week of April
Nicola Oliver on Capacity within the NHS
Nicola explains how surges in demand could cause the NHS problems and how supply and demand currently match
Covid-19 ; interpreting the deaths data
Based on the published data, Matt and Dan believe that it is as yet too early to say whether the number of daily deaths in the UK has peaked or even stabilised.
Peter Tompkins considers whether Lockdown will cause more deaths than keeping us at work.
He concludes that Lockdown does more good than ill
Tan Suee Chieh’s unusual slideshow about Risk, Uncertainty, Psychology and Judgement during the Pandemic
Matt Fletcher and Nicola Oliver deliver the third weekly round up of the must-read articles.
Adrian Baskir asks Could Covid-19 help the healthcare sector?
In the April 24th weekly round up, Nicola and Matt discuss the events of the week and feature a goat from North Wales.
Joseph Lu explains how the virus kills; a clear and unsensational explanation
Chris Daykin looks into International Comparisons and finds out how the UK stacks up.
Matthew Edwards explains the risk factors behind COVID-19 analysis
Matt Fletcher, Andrew Gache and Nicola Oliver give us a MayDay round up of the week’s developments,
Dermot Grenham looks at the data coming out of Africa. He reaches an interesting conclusion
Nicola Oliver tells you all you need to know about the vaccines and antivirals being tested against COVID-19
Dan Ryan argues that COVID-19 has raised the game of healthcare systems who are digitalising health records
Nicola and Matt do another weekly round up – this time to May 8th.
Nicola Oliver tells us what happens in intensive care
Gordon Woo explains what needs to be done to protect against a second wave of the virus.
Nicola and Matt produce the weekly round up – to 16th May
Stuart McDonald updates us on ICNARC and COVID-19
Louis Rossouw Compares the South African and UK responsest o COVID-19 and makes some interesting comments on the impact of easing the lockdown
Chris Daykin compares the UK experience of COVID- 19 to similar countries’ upgrading and expanding his earlier article
Stuart and Matthew compare two contrasting reports emanating from Stanford University.
The 8th weekly round up is produced by Matt Fletcher and Nicola Oliver
Joseph Lu looks at the economic impact of COVID-19 on the UK economy and how we might recover.
The COVID -19 actuaries managed to presage the Government’s announcement on the wearing of facemasks on public transport by just under one hour. This was the article that precursed it – from Nicola Oliver
Here is the 10th bulletin , once again from Nicola Oliver and Matt Fletcher
Stuart McDonald writes about Rand the policy impact on it in the UK. The article is based on publicly available data.
Here’s the 11th weekly bulletin, improbably exploring facilities for squirrels (among more important matters.
Here’s Nicola and Matt’s 12th weekly bulletin, where as well as the science, the focus shifts to pets.
Dan Ryan and Adrian Baskir produce a hard-hitting report on what really happened in our care homes.
Care homes – forgotten by us- not by Covid
The 13th weekly bulletinfinishes with a Covid-19 bookshelf – thanks again to Matt Fletcher and Nicola Oliver.
Nicola, Matt and Adrian ask if COVID-19 is seasonal
The 15th weekly bulletin examines data, infection and socially distanced bears
Is the treatment of COVID-19 in our hospitals becoming more effective ask Matt Edwards and John Roberts
The 16th weekly round up is touched by a kind of magic
Nicola Oliver looks at vaccines and asks how long we’ll be waiting for one in the first monthly medical bulletin
Louis Rossouw looks at South African COVID mortality relative to the UK and around the world
Non Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group material that may be of interest
Though its not from the Covid-19 group, Graphs from John Burn-Mudoch and his team at the FT are not behind the FT paywall and are free to access.
Thanks to John whose tweets at @jburnmurdoch keep us up to date with the FT’s live charts. (Example below).
Another helpful set of charts have been produced by Jamie Jenkins show how many of us are dying week by week each year going back 7 years
And this graph shows how it is for the over 85s
In addition to my previous tweet, here are weekly deaths in England and Wales for those aged 85 and over. This shows how deadly the flu is when the vaccine is not effective.
Keep the black line as low as possible by following the guidelines on Social Distancing. #COVID19 pic.twitter.com/n7QEuowbhM
— Jamie Jenkins (@statsjamie) April 11, 2020
Here is a thread of tweets from Stuart Mcdonald (set in a blog), explaining the April 17 Icnarc numbers .
A week later Stuart did it all over again, with new numbers and new insights.
Behind all these charts and tables are human beings. I will give the final tweets to Sanjum Sethi – who explains what these numbers mean to people saving lives.
I don’t usually rant on social media. However, after a week of service in the ICU, I’d like to get a few things off my chest. #COVID19 (1/10)
— Sanjum S. Sethi MD, MPH (@sanjum) April 12, 2020
I think many people would have done a lot more, if there was more data available.
For example testing 10,000 Londoners chosen from the Electorate register, to check how many asymptomatic people carrying the virus are out there.
I’m sure you are right Eugen. I was rather surprised to hear Michael Gove imply that the target of 100,000 tests might not be met because there weren’t people to test. I am sure that there are many hundreds of thousands of people in Britain who would happily be tested on a voluntary basis.
You didn’t see fit to include my diagram?
Peter – I haven’t seen your diagram
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