Tag Archives: COVID19

#COVID-19 Actuaries on Deaths, Excess deaths and the Government’s use of statistics

Posted on July 20, 2020 by henry tapper

  For months the COVID-19 actuaries bit their lips, knowing that COVID-19 deaths were being under reported. It was in the pubic interest for them not to challenge Government. Now there appears to be a much smaller amount of over-reporting … Continue reading →

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Covid-19 actuaries “Super Saturday” report

Posted on July 4, 2020 by henry tapper

The Friday Report – Issue 14 (published Saturday July 4th)   COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group – Learn. Share. Educate. Influence. Every week, more is written on COVID-19 than any individual could possibly read. Collectively, the COVID‑19 Actuaries Response Group read … Continue reading →

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Enjoy summer safely in a pub?

Posted on July 4, 2020 by henry tapper

There wasn’t much surety about Boris Johnson’s messaging in his briefing yesterday evening. The idea that having a few drinks in your local is a good idea is bonkers. I burst into laughter when the Prime Minister told me that … Continue reading →

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“Nine years ago today, the Budget nearly killed me” – Guy Opperman

Posted on April 27, 2020 by henry tapper

    This blog is about and by Guy Opperman – our  pensions minister; it’s re-published with his permission. It was first published April 26th here Today’s date is etched on my memory, and it will be forever. On Tuesday … Continue reading →

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Metropolitan evacuees may not be welcome

Posted on April 26, 2020 by henry tapper

One of the conversations I have with my brothers who live in Shaftesbury in Dorset is how little they think of second-homers from London.  I am beginning why those in the South West fear the influx of Londoners. In Covid-19 … Continue reading →

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Lockdown – is the cure worse than the illness? These actuaries think not.

Posted on April 16, 2020 by henry tapper

  We have reviewed the paper “J-value assessment of how best to combat Covid-19” by Philip Thomas, Professor of Risk Management in the Faculty of Engineering at Bristol University. Summary of key aspects of the paper This paper was given … Continue reading →

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“Be fast. Have no regrets. You must be the first mover”.

Posted on April 16, 2020 by henry tapper

  “Fast moving actuary” was once the title of a gossip column in Professional Pensions. It’s an intentional oxymoron, the actuary’s stock in trade is prudence – standing back. But “with a pandemic you can never act too early” and … Continue reading →

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Covid-19 – interpreting the deaths data

Posted on April 15, 2020 by henry tapper

Hospital deaths – Department of Health and Social Care and NHS England Data for the total number of positive tests for and deaths with COVID-19 in the UK (that is, individuals hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for COVID-19) … Continue reading →

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The rocket-fuel for recovery is love

Posted on April 15, 2020 by henry tapper

  In the pursuit of happiness (a principal theme of this blog), I am sometimes having to focus on “distress”. Now is such a time. There is a fine line between alleviating distress and profiting from it. We all know … Continue reading →

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The elephant in the care home

Posted on April 13, 2020 by henry tapper

New paper looks at early evidence of care home mortality in different countries. Provisionally concludes that about half (42% to 57%) of COVID-19 deaths are taking place in care homes. As a reminder, the 11,329 deaths announced by DHSC are … Continue reading →

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