Nicola Oliver analyses the latest ICNARC report which tells us what is happening to patients in England and Wales in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). These numbers relate to hospital admissions and don’t cover those being treated in care homes and elsewhere. The latest study of causes of death in care homes was in 2018 and can be accessed here. Thanks to Nicola for helping us to understand the latest available data on this subject.
THREAD
The latest @ICNARC report is now out with, for the first time, multivariate analysis. So, stepping into @ActuaryByDay shoes, here’s the summary, and a link to the full report. https://t.co/LfXFs1ExOH @COVID19actuary @ICS_updates
1/— Nicola Oliver | Medical Intelligence (@NicolaMedical) May 9, 2020
The downward trend for admissions to ICU continues; the effects of social distancing evident
3/ pic.twitter.com/GAzQgIm5UT— Nicola Oliver | Medical Intelligence (@NicolaMedical) May 9, 2020
As predicted by @ActuaryByDay last week, London no longer dominates the top 3 as far as geographical concentration is concerned though overall, London continues to have the greatest number of cases. Otherwise there has been very little change in the order
5/ pic.twitter.com/9dPeCQhKMb— Nicola Oliver | Medical Intelligence (@NicolaMedical) May 9, 2020
Multivariate analysis was conducted on a cohort of ~ 6000 patients and included those discharged alive from hospital within 30 days and those ending critical care within 30 days. Prognostic factors were selected based on what is already understood about critically ill patients
7/— Nicola Oliver | Medical Intelligence (@NicolaMedical) May 9, 2020
The next chart may come as a surprise given that it suggests that the mortality HR for males is broadly similar to females once known variables have been accounted for. However, we can also see that ethnic disparities persist, this must be addressed urgently
9/ pic.twitter.com/BJxi4uK2tW— Nicola Oliver | Medical Intelligence (@NicolaMedical) May 9, 2020
Risk of death was associated with increasing BMI compared against a reference of a BMI of 30. This is in line with what is understood about the health impacts of obesity, though would be interesting to see if there is any data on those considered underweight
11/ pic.twitter.com/EN1Ei7uxiV— Nicola Oliver | Medical Intelligence (@NicolaMedical) May 9, 2020
Additional analysis on physiological factors are captured in the full document. Please note that in multivariate analysis, association DOES NOT in any way confirm causation. Thank you to @ICNARC for compiling this analysis in such a timely manner and for the earlier presentation
— Nicola Oliver | Medical Intelligence (@NicolaMedical) May 9, 2020
