You heard it here first

Here were our pension predictions from a year ago (you can read the full blog from December 2011- here)

Artificially depressed interest rates drive up DB deficits and depress annuities but the pressure on life companies and pension schemes to adopt Solvency II recedes as the UK  distances itself from Brussels.

The price of the settlement on public sector pensions is later state retirement ages for everyone.

NEST‘s first complete year of trading finds it running  behind projected revenues ;- other mastertrusts and lower cost personal pensions make it redundant. Pressure mounts for its shackles to be broken before 2017.

Steve Webb tells sponsors they must offer advice not cash to incentivize PIEs and ETVs. Many IFAs facing the RDR turn  to advising on “at retirement” issues.

Old world equity markets struggle as national debt subdues demand – the BRICs give what investment growth there is.  Hedge Funds suffer as their pricing structures come under scrutiny.

Finally 2012 sees pressure mount to find ways to risk-share in DC with the focus firmly on collective decumulation.

And here’s a few things we didn’t anticipate

1. DWP gets serious about “pot follows member” and insists it will be in legislation by the end of the parliamentary term
2. Adviser charging and commission are effectively banned from auto-enrolment workplace savings schemes
3. Three out of the first five AE schemes have DB elements (RBS, Tesco, Morrison’s)
4. Opt-outs are primarily carried out on-line (mainly instigated by smart phones)
5. The stakeholder charging cap is superseded by a “new baseline level” of charging at 0.50%
6. Legal and General are the big winners in providing DC services to the large early stagers
7. GreggMcClymont becomes an impressive counterpart to Steve Webb making 2012 one of the most progressive years in public policy in living memory.

Thanks to all the 50,000 visitors to www.henrytapper.com in 2012. Next year I hope that this blog will have a new and exciting home – watch this space!

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• What Steve Webb must do now. (henrytapper.com)
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• L&G’s AE membership self-serving with hand helds! (henrytapper.com)
• Opt-outs triggered by smartphones say Legal and General! (henrytapper.com)
• We should be proud to have an opt-out! (henrytapper.com)
• Why we need to say “NO” to pension guarantees! (henrytapper.com)
• Don’t put your swaptions on the stage Mrs Redington! (henrytapper.com)