The ripened thoughts of a wise old man

 

One of my best friends , a man old enough to be my father, is a regular correspondent on my blog. He likes to remain anonymous and let me take the blame for his views, one day I will “out” him, but not today.

Here are some comments , translated from the text messages they arrived as to the blog with limited redactions

These are shards which need to be preserved, the thoughts of a contrarian. We ignore the voices from the penumbra of retirement at our peril.

If people like them, I will publish more – the comments inform my thinking and my writing.

The person knows who he/she is and will I hope be smiling as he reads…


On Australian pensions

(1) population is ageing. So usual demographic challenges
(2) super is maturing for those retiring so much much more of incomes in retirement will be from super than age pension
(3) age pension has not been a burden because of (1)
(4) age pension is entirely means tested. So no basic pension like us.
(5) age pension is indexed to prices (although too complex to understand( as a result of all the above fewer people get age pension. – unless they run out of super
(6) oecd is really interesting. Their table for what a current 22 yo can expect shows only people well below average earnings can expect age pension (although modelling is very very simplistic understandably as covers ALL countries). Due to growth in super and falling age pension relative to earnings.
(7) as a result, at all earnings levels, assuming a lifetime of contributions, income if spread over life is 31% of earnings. One of the lowest in the world.
(8) Mercer Melbourne rates it highly as the D.C. accumulation is well managed. Supposedly. But largely ignores the level. (9) looking beside it in the oecd table.
Well done Austria. The WORST RATED Mercer framework – as it gets poor marks for issues which don’t matter!

On the DWP presiding over the quietest graveyard

 My take on this is perhaps jaundiced.
After Steve Webb, nothing has been done. All the talk was how successful AE was.
It was successful like Australia. Getting people signed up (although missing lots and lots) and getting the payroll working.
It is a good sidecar. It is not a pension.
But that blinded everyone to everything else. As with the 2017 review. “Just save more (with us)”.
Guy Opperman was genial but hopeless as a minister. DWP leant too heavily on TPR. TPR was punch drunk from Frank and hence the heavy handed CDC rules and SuperFund  ones. Add in it being all too difficult for GO to beat HMT on SF.
There may be some issues with some individuals on all sides but I should not go down that. I would love if all these smart ideas could suddenly flower. Or Labour come in and push them out. But it is hard to be hopeful.

On DC “pensions”

The basic point is that D.C. is not a pension. We are wasting our time. And energy and resources. It is of course a way of providers making money. And doing a lot of pretty pointless stuff to make them feel better.
I am all for saving. I am all for adequate saving. I am all for VfM in saving. And understanding about saving and tax and all that jazz. But if we really want people to have more money when they don’t work and for that to apply to the lowest half of the wealth distribution, then D.C. is not the answer and more D.C. doesn’t solve it either.
Nor does automatically consolidating pots or EDI.

On Duration

Duration. What is the “duration” of a typical DB scheme?
A1 about 150 years – until the last widow dies, having married her aged great great uncle when she was 22
A2 about 8 years, according to our actuary.
What is the expected total cost to schemes of getting advisors to explain duration?

About henry tapper

Founder of the Pension PlayPen,, partner of Stella, father of Olly . I am the Pension Plowman
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