Category Archives: coronavirus

Stuart McDonald on who’s catching the virus (part 2)

Posted on April 25, 2020 by henry tapper

Stuart’s first tweet thread on the ICNARC data can be read here.  This is part two and it’s co-morbid. The latest @ICNARC report is out. Let’s see if I can do a summary which is both jargon-free and typo-free this … Continue reading →

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Actuaries, goats and flamingos; – the Covid-19 weekly report

Posted on April 25, 2020 by henry tapper

General On 23 April, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) issued their ninth “rapid risk assessment” report on COVID-19 . As with previous ECDC reports, this is a very detailed and informative summary of all aspects of … Continue reading →

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Will health insurers be unlikely winners from Covid-19?

Posted on April 22, 2020 by henry tapper

  Background Much of the media and public attention is focused on the progression of Covid-19 in terms of cumulative and daily number of cases, deaths and recoveries.  However, for health actuaries, our key interest is in infection rates and … Continue reading →

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Do Models help us understand Covid-19- Jimi Adams explains how they do

Posted on April 21, 2020 by henry tapper

What are COVID-19 Models Modeling? This article first appeared in the Society Pages Image shows a model of the projected number of observed COVID-19 cases in Colorado under different levels of social distancing, starting March 26. Figure from a report … Continue reading →

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Care homes – the elephant is out the room

Posted on April 19, 2020 by henry tapper

We can take as the roughest of approximations that the numbers dying in care or at home is about half of the number in hospitals.   That would mean that the number who have died outside hospital by now  (April … Continue reading →

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Actuaries weekly round up ; Covid-19

Posted on April 18, 2020 by henry tapper

Every week, more is written on COVID-19 than any individual could possibly read. Collectively, the COVID19 Actuaries Response Group read more about the outbreak than most, so we’ve decided each Friday to provide you with a curated list of the … Continue reading →

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“Be fast. Have no regrets. You must be the first mover”.

Posted on April 16, 2020 by henry tapper

  “Fast moving actuary” was once the title of a gossip column in Professional Pensions. It’s an intentional oxymoron, the actuary’s stock in trade is prudence – standing back. But “with a pandemic you can never act too early” and … Continue reading →

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Covid-19 – interpreting the deaths data

Posted on April 15, 2020 by henry tapper

Hospital deaths – Department of Health and Social Care and NHS England Data for the total number of positive tests for and deaths with COVID-19 in the UK (that is, individuals hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for COVID-19) … Continue reading →

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The rocket-fuel for recovery is love

Posted on April 15, 2020 by henry tapper

  In the pursuit of happiness (a principal theme of this blog), I am sometimes having to focus on “distress”. Now is such a time. There is a fine line between alleviating distress and profiting from it. We all know … Continue reading →

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The elephant in the care home

Posted on April 13, 2020 by henry tapper

New paper looks at early evidence of care home mortality in different countries. Provisionally concludes that about half (42% to 57%) of COVID-19 deaths are taking place in care homes. As a reminder, the 11,329 deaths announced by DHSC are … Continue reading →

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