Tag Archives: mortality

Will the pandemic leave us sicker? – the Covid-19 actuaries discuss

Introduction Our recent Bulletins[i] on mortality impacts of the pandemic considered the likely (short-medium term) mortality of the surviving population, and how a mortality investigation could reasonably be done post-pandemic. In this Bulletin we consider the longer-term impacts of the … Continue reading

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Care homes – forgotten by us- not by Covid

This article can also be found at the COVID-19 Actuaries website http://www.covid-arg.com Introduction In their weekly analysis of deaths, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the total number deaths in excess of 5-year averages in the 12 weeks … Continue reading

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What happened in week 10; science from the COVID Actuaries

  Every week, more is written on COVID-19 than any individual could possibly read. Collectively, the COVID‑19 Actuaries Response Group read more about the outbreak than most, so we’ve decided each Friday to provide you with a curated list of … Continue reading

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COVID-19 – our chances IF we survive.

      Introduction Given the complexity of the question, and the different facets, we are breaking our commentary on this question into three bulletins: What is the likely mortality of the ‘survivor pool’ in the short term? What are … Continue reading

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People don’t have a “sell by” date

Two articles have been troubling my conscience, the first is by Debora Price  and is featured on this blog. Debora champions the vitality of older people. The second article is by Ros Altmann and is on a similar theme. It … Continue reading

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Should the Government be levelling with us (or not)?

Boris Johnson’s most memorable phrase, before his illness was “I want to level with you”. At that stage, telling us that people would die in British hospitals was still newsworthy. Six weeks on and telling us how many are dying … Continue reading

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Covid-19; Risk, Uncertainty, Psychology and Judgement

    You can see this presentation which runs to 60 slides following Tan’s narrative   The Slideshare is available to read below in plain text. By TAN SUEE CHIEH, IFoA’s President Elect Keywords Risk. People (p). Risk of mortality … Continue reading

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If you’re 65 , you just got 11 months older

In 2017, the Govt used rising longevity to justify bringing forward a planned rise in the state pension age to 68 by seven years. At time, Govt said a 65-yr old could expect to live for another 22.8 years According … Continue reading

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Actuaries! Talk with us – don’t argue with each other.

  There’s a  silly letter in the FT this week which I print in full.  Sir, Jo Cumbo’s report “Mortality update bodes well for pension deficits” (May 4) refers to an assertion by PwC that slowing mortality improvements could reduce UK … Continue reading

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Isn’t life looking up for our DB Plans?

  Say it quietly but the outlook for our defined benefit pension schemes is improving. Members , trustees and sponsoring employers can be heartened by five concurrent signals – all of which suggest that the cataclysm predicted last year by … Continue reading

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