Dapper Tapper in relaxed mood

I wish my friends a happy Monday from the mountains of Perthshire.

It is good to share what little sun God gave central Scotland yesterday! Here I am considering whether to brave a walk while knowing another squally rainstorm was just up the loch and coming down from Rannoch Moor,

I did walk at Aberfeldy and had a good meal there but I got rather wet when out with brother and dog.

So the highlight of my day was the light that came at me with stunning impact on the water and countryside

With the clocks coming forward, I was able to relax ahead of a hearty supper in a fine array of nightwear , living up to the rarely heard epithet “Dapper Tapper”

This week is a recovery week for the Tappers who have descended on their timeshare since 1976. This is our niftiest fiftiest year that has survived Covid and the troubles of old age.

It reminds me that some things survive and our delight in Scotland is one of them! I hope you enjoy me – for once – in truly relaxed mood!

 

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A good week to be on holiday – (not a good one for the markets)

Yesterday Donald Trump told the FT’s Ed Luce that his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran. Markets in Asia opened in a foul mood last night. So it seems likely we are in for another volatile week in markets for everything from oil to stocks to volatility itself. Hopefully US retail sales and employment reports, which both land in the coming days, will lend stability rather than the opposite. Good luck out there

This is the message we wake up to from the FT’s correspondent from across the pond.

Have we over-reacted – Robert Armstrong thinks we have.

Short rates have overshot

The two-year Treasury yield — which I am contractually obliged to describe as “the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield” — fell a bit on Friday, which struck me as a sign of sanity returning. Short rates have gone too far:

Line chart of Two year Treasury yield % showing Everyone take a breath

When the war started, the market expected at the very least one and probably two Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of this year. Those cuts have been erased from the market’s implied forecast. What is more, the market now prices in a one-in-five chance of a 25 basis point rate increase this year. Hence the leap in the two-year yield.

All this despite the fact that, back in central banking 101, we were taught that the correct response to a supply shock in energy is to leave monetary policy unchanged. Central banks cannot print oil, and higher energy prices already have a dampening effect on growth. Tightening just kicks the economy while it’s down.

There is an important addendum to this rule, though. Energy prices are so visible and relevant to consumers and businesses that watching them rise might create expectations of future, broad-based inflation. These expectations might encourage workers to demand wage increases and businesses to push up prices to protect margins, leading to an upward spiral. So the playbook says that when energy prices rise, bankers should stand up very straight and talk about how rates will be increased if necessary. This is what developed world central bankers have done.

Responding to this official posturing by taking out the two expected rate cuts would have been overkill — but for the fact that US inflation was about a percentage point above target, and stuck there, before the war began. The war may have scared some of the irrational optimism out of the market. But now things have gone too far.

If expectations do threaten to break containment, the Fed can act quickly. As of now, there is not even a whisper of this. Indeed, market-implied expectations for medium-term inflation are signalling that growth is a bigger worry (with oil and longer-term rates rising at the same time, the market may be on to something). Here are five-year expectations for the period starting five years from now:

Line chart of Five-year, five-year forward inflation expectation rate showing Anchored

One might argue that failure to raise rates in the face of a supply shock was what caused the inflation to run riot in 2021 and 2022. But the circumstances could not be more different now: nominal and real rates are starting from a higher point, and the labour market is stagnant where it was red hot back then. Alternatively, one might make the case that once the market starts to price in rate hikes, even for dumb reasons, the Fed has to deliver them, or face a loss of credibility which would invite higher inflation expectations. Perhaps, but the first line of defence for the Fed should be clear communication, not capitulation.

The overshoot in short rates could very well be a fleeting artefact of hurried repositioning by speculators. Lots of funds were long two-year bonds as a hedge for long positions in the S&P 500 (a trade, I regret to inform you, referred to as “twos and spoos.”) Neither side of the trade has worked, which may have forced everyone to rush from one side of the sailboat to the other.

If the last month has taught us anything, it is that things can always get worse. Given what we know right now, though, short rates look too high.

Armstrong

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How robust is CDC to different market conditions? – LCP looks at the last 80 years

CDC investment strategy is twice as important as the contributions paid. – say LCP. I am understanding the history of money with them in the second part of their epic on the feasibility of CDC

I am really pleased that LCP have produced a new chapter in their book exploring CDC in the UK. Their chief finding is that investment is 70% of the success of a CDC plan, Here they look at investment secret in more detail

Ivan and Laun are from LCP’s investment consultancy in London. They are writing of a subject that will be topical to anyone at Easter this year. How can we help people feel comfortable that whatever is happening in the market, they will get the pension they expected, I have a DC pot and don’t feel that way!

I hope they do not mind me – as someone who lived through most of this- make my comments


The history of pensions since World War II

My comments on the post-war years start with recovery

The early years following the war are seen s a period of great growth when CDC would have picked up on returns from investing in real assets (equities and infrastructure). I was only on the planet for the last two of these years, but have spoken with my parents and grandparents who call them the “good days “.


There followed years when things went wrong and Britain faltered

 

The period that followed is the one I grew up in. It was a time when I was at school and college when Britain suffered from industrial strife and found itself unable to compete globally. I am just old enough to remember it felt like young people must be feeling today. This was a horrid time for our money but pensions survived.


The twenty years when Britain boomed and millennials like me prospered

 

It was a good time to be at work and a time when investments from housing to shares grew fast. This was a time of optimism among my generation and a time when older folk like our parents begun retiring on healthier pensions that had accrued since the war

 

A falling back again


This last 20 years has not been so good. We have tightened our belts as for much of it we have been in austerity or in the crisis caused by a pandemic. But it has been a good time for investments and many of us who have stuck the course have been rewarded with returns on our DC. It is not so much the capital that troubles us but the lack of income to retire on when we earn less.

Here we can look back and wish we built up pensions rather than pots…

A pension for all times

Like Ivan and Laun, I can see huge changes in the way things worked for working people since the word war, some from  experience but also from the market data they have collected and present. Here are their conclusions

I look forward to  commenting on “what this means in practice”.  I do not think we need to be experts to understand pensions in the sense that consumers have to. For consumers who become pensioners, what has been consumed is the work of consultants and proprietors of plans that take them through retirement with consistent, robust income paid to them throughout the final stage of their life,

It has been remarkable to spend some time thinking historically about the last 80 years and about how pensions have survived and grown over that time. We now need to return to the fundamental thing we consume, the money we have put by over a lifetime paid as a pension.

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Can we afford the triple lock on our state pension?

Last week I commented on the choice that the Pensions Minister has over whether to promote the triple lock, retain the current state pension age or do both, Here are younger voice.

My friend Andy Young had privately reproved me for what I’d written in a daily paper

Here he is speaking publicly on linked in;-

View Andrew Young’s profile

Andrew Young 

A few weeks ago I made the following comment on the triple lock.

Given world events since the, inflation expectations at least in the short term have probably changed, but the times in my comment are over a year ahead.

“Fom September 2027, 2028 and 2029 when decisions are made about basic state pension increases, the 2.5% underpin is expected/projected to be HIGHER than BOTH price and earnings increases for 3 years. Can the triple lock survive that?”

 

 

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Of old and new; Derek Scott is my master!

As I’m near him in Scotland this week, I will promote some of the remarkable comments on my blog of Derek Scott to the blog itself. This will I hope solicit an invitation to visit him in his Fife Fiefdom and give joy to those who don’t follow the comments on my blogs (usually better than the blogs themselves.

Here is Derek on my blog reminding me how to use technology (he is nearly 15 years my senior and evidence that older people can be e just as smart with new technology)

And here he is, a few minutes later, replying to my exasperation that people don’t pick up their reward for making national savings.

And as if I haven’t had education enough from this great pedagogue, here is a third comment in a row, reminding us all that we donate more to the State than we might care do admit too,

Now I’m not Scottish, nor an accountant and it would be easy for me to ignore this elderly gentleman. But were I to, it would be to my great discredit. I learn from Derek Scott every time he puts finger to keyboard to write a comment.

May the foul temper of the weather relent and may I find a way to meet with the great man. I hope I can share his company with my kin.

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From Rannoch Moor to Pitlochry , Perthshire is anointed by Edinburgh and Trump

Looking one way towards Pitlochry and Perth

On Friday I learned that to stay in a Pitlochry Bed and Breakfast could cost me £180 per night. Yesterday I learned that the plush new development in Aberfeldy is built  “part with  American, part money from the bankers of Edinburgh”.

The plush clubhouse at Aberfeldy

This estimation was given by a resident of my adjacent village. She had even sharper words for Kenmore which she said had turned from a lovely place in the Highlands to a gated place for the “friends of Donald Trump”.

It should be said, I was speaking to a resident of Kinloch Rannoch half way between the marquee billowing in the wind and the new village centre that we had come from. There is clearly not a part of Perthshire that has not been touched by the wand of money! The marquee I was told had on Friday housed the wake to a local funeral.

Famously, Donald Trump came from Scotland and the country has been anointed by him with his blessing.

But the mountain of Schiehallion still looks on and the foul blasts still whistle down the loch from Rannoch Moor,

looking the other way to Rannoch Moor

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Advice for the working person over later life; Simon Chrystal’s podcast #2

simon Chrystal

Simon Chrystal  is a phenomenon. He sends luck to the editors   of this podcast as he finishes explaining how WPS Advisory has give up on giving paid advice to 600,000 employees whose employers wanted him delivering messages to the staff they had given pensions to.

The reason for the pivot were unclear but they came amidst the torrent of information and opinion that came at us in 76 minutes. Two facts stuck h me

If they had the advice paid for them by the boss, one in five employees turned up to hear the advice, if they had to pay for the advice themselves, one in fifty paid for and listened to the advice.

I hope I’m not cynical in saying that 98% of people do not value financial advice on what to do before retiring enough to pay for it.

There is a long history during this century of IFAs being employed to deliver bulk advice to meet the needs of Employee Benefit Consultants to get ideas pas the Pension Regulator and the FCA. Typically these have involved “de-risking” pension schemes (aka transferring risk from the scheme and its sponsor) to the member/employee.

It has not turned out well for many IFAs. LEBC spring to mind and WPS advisory are doing well to get out before they follow the same dark path to ruin. Ruin may now come not from problems with the regulator but with the bank manager. When de-risking was needed to balance the book on DB plans deemed to be in deficit, getting an employer to stump up to protect the employer , the trustees and the EBC from the regulators  was fine. Simon quotes sums of £250,000 paid per project to the advisor as gold dust to the IFA.

But there is no longer the work – we have to suppose. This is not surprising as 75% of DC schemes are deemed to be in surplus and with different employees. The problem is no longer the risk and Simon’s firm no longer has the stream of work they were enjoying when Simon did his last podcast two years ago.

Instead, Simon has discovered that the clients that he has , have a quarter of a million pounds each and have them under the advice of WPS. The new model to which he will pivot is to make money on this money by finding a home for it , where it can pay his firm the income it needs to replace the lost income from giving the working person retirement advice.

This failure of the system is a regulatory failing (in Simon’s opinion) and he backs up everything he says with data that he has to hand. Infact this podcast is a 76 minute diatribe against the system that does not empower the working person to cease being the 2% who do and start being the 98% of people who don’t currently take advice on what to do from a proper financial advisor.

I know the provenance of WPS advisory and its funders and I must say I am surprised that this firm is lecturing us on value for money. I would beg to differ on the validity of  his  views on value for money for the working person when put in action.

It is a long and very tedious podcast where only Simon Chrystal gets a word in and where the listener is given no chance to hear alternative views from Darren and Nico.  I listened to the end and hope that we will return to paid advice as a topic for discussion. I am with the 98% who see no value in the money that is paid for it.


The boys are doing a podcast next week based on our questions. So far they haven’t got any questions and they’re saddened by this. I have a question for them which is apart from the obvious question why these podcasts aren’t edited down to an hour. My non-procedural question is this…

Should the members of DB pension schemes have a say in the spending of any surplus that pension scheme distributes?

 

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If this what what a pension dashboard made me do… I’d do myself in – Richard!

I read this with a feeling I wanted to lie on the floor and breathe steadily till the palpitations went away.

gh

If I could see all the pots I ever had (11) on a single board, even it meant clicking through to see them as pots, I expect I’d do the kind of thing that Richard is doing

As I’m sure you know, a pension is a lifetime income that will in future keep pace with inflation. You may chose to opt out and generally 10% of savers opt out of anything that doesn’t do it for you. But that means the other 90% (including me) will be getting the default – as set out above – an income for life that keeps pace with inflation.

But to worry that some of your funds have gone down (and one up) is to give yourself needless sleepless nights. All your four pot managers are supposed to be doing the same thing which is to provide  you with that income and that some one did well and the rest badly is of virtually no import.

I have no interest in checking the relative performance of my pots despite one supposed to be out of oil (fossil fuel free) , one investing in technology and one being Nest’s default. I am waiting for the day when I can have a retirement income from them all which will keep pace with inflation.

If this is what “value for money” testing is about, then it’s just a practical version of the theoretical testing done by TPR and FCA who don’t measure your experience but something made up by them and the people who do performance measurement in actuarial bubbles.

I’m sorry but if what we are saving for is a pension, then what the heck is the up and down of my pot’s value over a week, a month or a year any importance? Why can’t I have a measure that talks about my pay in retirement and the chances of that pay keeping pace with inflation? Why can’t that be the measure of value for my money -it’s what it says on the packet – all these pots are “workplace pensions”!

On my way up to the north, I got a call from my Doctor – Dr Tommy  of the Neumann  Group. He said he was worried that my neurological condition drive me to depression and even suicide.

I told Dr Tommy that I was a cheerful chap but I could be driven to something like the state he described.

We laughed when I explained that I worked in pensions but only saw pots – he knew what I meant.

 

 

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Good news for pension’s superfunds?

This has been a week when superfunds have been in the news, mainly because David Walmsley of the Pensions Regulator gave Professional Pensions this headline

Well “superfund” means a lot of things. To Clara , it means a bridge to annuity while the original concept of an extended run-off looks what the Pensions Trust have in mind. There are others, Punter Southall being the most notable with its hook up with Carlisle, who aim to provide Capital Backed Journeys for occupational pensions wanting help to carry on.

Add to this the “swap” of sponsors using an RAA, that Stagecoach Pension and Aberdeen have  pioneered and  there appears to be a credible alternative to going it alone or buying out.

But I think we need to be a little careful with this statement

Walmsley said TPR welcomed the growth in the market. He said: “As a regulator, we want to see that market grow and the options come forward.”

There has been a pipeline of superfunds lining up to be authorised and do business for near on ten years. But so far this has resulted in four schemes for Clara and the Stagecoach deal.

There is no growth in the market yet and Edi Truell will shake his head if you ask him if he is looking to return for another go. The reality is that most of the hard work that has gone into superfunds has gone to waste because the potential providers could not find a way to make money for themselves nor the schemes to be confident.

We have a lot of legislation and regulation but it is incomplete and until it is, we will continue to have a pipeline but not much acceleration in the aims of the Pensions Regulator and the DWP.

In truth, there is a deep-running anathema to superfunds within the Treasury which runs through the PRA , the Bank of England and is the result of great work by the Association of British Insurers ever since David Cameron and George Osborne came up with the idea in 2016.

We may want in principal our DB schemes to provide capital for the British economy and we may want to see the cost of advising on, administering and governing 5,000 odd DB pensions fall. But when it comes down to it, will the advisers, trustees and all the others with interest in continuing to make a living out of pensions let consolidators take over?

Sadly, I see “pipeline” being  the word for progress on superfunds.  Until the Government (from pensions minister to regulator) accepts that change requires resilience to the ABI’s lobby, there will be but  pipeline.

Note the date of this document – none have been done!

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Complaint upheld over FCA’s handling of BSPS advice scandal

A Port Talbot insight

The Financial Regulators Complaints (FRC) Commissioner has upheld a complaint over the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) handling of the British Steel Pension Scheme (BSPS) advice scandal, concluding that the regulator acted too slowly to prevent widespread unsuitable advice.

It is meagre comfort for the steelworkers involved who from 2017 could see exactly what the failings of the regulators were at the time.

In a final report, the commissioner, Abby Thomas, found that the FCA contributed to “serious consumer detriment” among steelworkers.

There has been no investigation of the failures of the Scheme itself to provide assistance to the steelworkers or indeed the failure of its regulator (the Pensions Regulator) to make it clear what was being lost by leaving the pension scheme

More than £17.6m has been paid in compensation to over 470 affected customers so far, many of whom suffered losses exceeding statutory limits.

But the payments have been based on a formula that works on current annuity rates. Those who got the bulk or these payments got them before the hike in gilt rates in 2022 which meant the formula work against the former pensioners.

The FCA previously described the case as “one of the worst” it had seen, highlighting the extent of consumer harm within the BSPS advice market.

I gave witness to the Work and Pensions Committee on this, Megan Butler followed me and steelworkers who had been ripped off. Megan Butler was in charge of the FCA’s operation but had no idea of what was going on and was berated by Frank Filed for being ill prepared both for her session and for what happened in Scunthorpe, Port Talbot and elsewhere.

However, the commissioner has argued that the FCA’s shortcomings were not isolated but reflected “a series of regulatory failings” across the entire lifecycle of the BSPS episode.

I would agree and this blog intends to stand as a reminder that it warned anyone who would here that disaster was coming when a strategy was adopted that kept the scheme out of the PPF. If the original proposal had been adopted and the £15bn scheme had been put into the PPF’s waiting room, something could have been done to protect steelworkers. Instead a silly scheme was devised by consultants, the lead of which was ex TPR. Here is not the place to rehears detail , but a book needs to be written.

Here is the conclusion of the Pension Age Article, thank you Callum Conway.

In particular, the report concluded that the regulator failed to act on known risks in the defined benefit (DB) transfer market, despite earlier evidence of poor advice standards and systemic weaknesses.

Key criticisms included its delays in banning contingent charging despite recognised conflicts of interest, inadequate oversight of adviser qualifications and professional indemnity insurance (PII), and a failure to gather real-time data on firms advising BSPS members during the “Time to Choose” window.

The commissioner therefore upheld the primary complaint that the FCA was “consistently behind the curve in anticipating, preventing and responding” to the crisis.

She also highlighted that although a redress scheme was introduced, many steelworkers had not been restored to the position they would have held had they remained in the scheme.

In response to the final report, the FCA rejected the central finding, arguing that its actions were “reasonable and proportionate” based on the information available at the time.

The FCA stated that it “does not agree” with the conclusion that it was behind the curve, pointing instead to its risk-based supervisory approach following the 2015 pension freedoms and subsequent enforcement activity.

It noted that more than £106m in redress had been secured for 1,870 former BSPS members and that enforcement action had been taken against over 20 individuals and firms.

The regulator also emphasised that DB transfers were already presumed unsuitable under its rules, placing responsibility on firms to act in customers’ best interests.

However, it acknowledged that data-sharing limitations constrained early visibility of the issue and added that improvements had since been made, including enhanced analytics and closer coordination with other regulators.

In an interim statement, the commissioner signalled that the FCA’s response raised “clear points of disagreement” and would be reviewed in more detail.

A further considered response is expected in due course.

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