There had to be a point for Ian Duncan Smith running a summer scare story around pushing the state pension age to 75. We have just been through a lengthy consultation and review of the state pension age. It culminated in a report published in July 2017 which contained the following table
This is from the Government Actuary’s report earlier in the year which was complimented by the work of John Cridland.
It is to this work that Jo Cumbo and David Robbins refer
Indeed, Govt is (was?) “minded to commit” to “up to 32%” formula in long term. On latest (soon to be updated) life expectancy projections, this gives SPA of 69 in 2054 – which OBR assumes. See my tweets from last night for source images; sorry -can’t share link via phone.
— David Robbins (@David_J_Robbins) August 22, 2019
David Robins had tweeted the previous evening over Amber Rudd’s claims that the Government had no plans to raise the state pension age beyond 68
Govt policy is SPA = 68 for entering workforce today, says @AmberRuddHR Is it?
In July 2017, Govt said it was “minded to commit” to “up to 32%” of adult life formula. Under latest ONS life expectancy projections (to be revised soon), that takes SPA to 69 in 2054 & 70 in 2069. https://t.co/R3qzLjY1DF pic.twitter.com/EbsYsaHSAp
— David Robbins (@David_J_Robbins) August 21, 2019
Quite clearly the Government has no qualms about allowing the state pension age to rise to any level that it chooses and is supported by GAD and Cridland in doing so.
I can only assume that the point of Duncan Smith’s recommendation that we tear up all the work of the lengthy consultation, only a couple of years later, was to show young people they have absolutely no security that the Government will keep its promises.
The rather silly statements of Amber Rudd suggest that there is no-one in the DWP at the moment capable of briefing a novice secretary of state on what the Government has already decided as its position.
How does my son feel about being 75?
Straight answer- I’ve no idea. He is in Montenegro in an AirBnB getting loved up with his girlfriend and I shouldn’t think concerns about mixed messaging on the SPA are high on his worry list.
But I worry for him – being his Dad. We need to restore confidence in pensions -that’s what this blog is trying to do. The Government’s State Pension Age Review helped me understand why my SPA had increased from 65 to 67 and gave me confidence that future state pension ages would be set on a rational basis.
And what is brilliant about David Robbins’ understanding is that he communicates it with unerring accuracy
Not only do we have Cridland and GAD but we have the Office of Budget Responsibility on the case, making sure we have an effectively managed state pension age and thus an affordable single state pension.
When we have the next OBR statement on all this, we will be properly updated. Hopefully the review will include the latest picture on what is happening with the death-rate in this country (mortality figures).
My son should feel pretty good about the Government’s process for managing the SPA and concerned that there are hooligans like IDS out to wreck it.
Thanks to Jo Cumbo and David Robbins for making sense of the summer inanity. Sadly not everyone will have two such sensible people to hand. A lot of people will read the story of a state pension age of 75 and think it true, and more will read Amber Rudd’s promise of a fixed retirement age of 68 and wonder at that too.