There had to be a point for Ian Duncan Smith running a summer scare story around pushing the state pension age to 75. We have just been through a lengthy consultation and review of the state pension age. It culminated in a report published in July 2017 which contained the following table
This is from the Government Actuary’s report earlier in the year which was complimented by the work of John Cridland.
It is to this work that Jo Cumbo and David Robbins refer
Indeed, Govt is (was?) “minded to commit” to “up to 32%” formula in long term. On latest (soon to be updated) life expectancy projections, this gives SPA of 69 in 2054 – which OBR assumes. See my tweets from last night for source images; sorry -can’t share link via phone.
— David Robbins (@David_J_Robbins) August 22, 2019
David Robins had tweeted the previous evening over Amber Rudd’s claims that the Government had no plans to raise the state pension age beyond 68
Govt policy is SPA = 68 for entering workforce today, says @AmberRuddHR Is it?
In July 2017, Govt said it was “minded to commit” to “up to 32%” of adult life formula. Under latest ONS life expectancy projections (to be revised soon), that takes SPA to 69 in 2054 & 70 in 2069. https://t.co/R3qzLjY1DF pic.twitter.com/EbsYsaHSAp
— David Robbins (@David_J_Robbins) August 21, 2019
Quite clearly the Government has no qualms about allowing the state pension age to rise to any level that it chooses and is supported by GAD and Cridland in doing so.
I can only assume that the point of Duncan Smith’s recommendation that we tear up all the work of the lengthy consultation, only a couple of years later, was to show young people they have absolutely no security that the Government will keep its promises.
The rather silly statements of Amber Rudd suggest that there is no-one in the DWP at the moment capable of briefing a novice secretary of state on what the Government has already decided as its position.
How does my son feel about being 75?
Straight answer- I’ve no idea. He is in Montenegro in an AirBnB getting loved up with his girlfriend and I shouldn’t think concerns about mixed messaging on the SPA are high on his worry list.
But I worry for him – being his Dad. We need to restore confidence in pensions -that’s what this blog is trying to do. The Government’s State Pension Age Review helped me understand why my SPA had increased from 65 to 67 and gave me confidence that future state pension ages would be set on a rational basis.
And what is brilliant about David Robbins’ understanding is that he communicates it with unerring accuracy
Not only do we have Cridland and GAD but we have the Office of Budget Responsibility on the case, making sure we have an effectively managed state pension age and thus an affordable single state pension.
When we have the next OBR statement on all this, we will be properly updated. Hopefully the review will include the latest picture on what is happening with the death-rate in this country (mortality figures).
My son should feel pretty good about the Government’s process for managing the SPA and concerned that there are hooligans like IDS out to wreck it.
Thanks to Jo Cumbo and David Robbins for making sense of the summer inanity. Sadly not everyone will have two such sensible people to hand. A lot of people will read the story of a state pension age of 75 and think it true, and more will read Amber Rudd’s promise of a fixed retirement age of 68 and wonder at that too.
To be fair, Henry, both may be right. GAD, Cridland and OBR have made some recommendations but they are not in legislation and with dates as far away as 2050s or 2060s, anything can change in the meantime. So there has been an indication of increasing beyond 68, but it is not yet a policy decision. IDS was keen to move to 70 quickly a few years ago, but that wasn’t agreed. I prefer a much more nuanced approach, rather than a stark chronological age cut-off which increasingly disadvantages the poorer and less healthy members of society. Longer NI record for full State Pension would cut costs and be much fairer, access to some ill-health early payments would also help, however an enormous saving could be made by dropping the triple lock. 35 years of NI is nowhere near a full working life these days. Encouraging people to work longer is absolutely right, but that is very different from forcing those who are unfit to keep labouring by withholding their State Pension when they really need it. Raising to 70 or 75 soon would be major social injustice, with least advantaged areas having 20 years less healthy life expectancy than the most disadvantaged. And todays older workers who are not high earners will not have time to build up big private pensions to accommodate such massive state pension delays. So Amber Rudd is right that there isn’t an official policy that mandates going to 70 and David and Jo are correct to refer to the most recent consultation and review which suggests that might happen.
I hoped that the blog expressed confidence in the GAD/Cridland/OBR trinity keeping us on the straight and narrow. I agree with you that it’s easy to grab headlines on SPA but all too easy to scare people in doing so. The point of the Single State Pension is to provide comfort and confidence not to posture and strut your right wing credentials!
I know that is not what you do!