Getting the over 50s back to work looks as challenging as Tony’s graphic.

Last month , I wrote about the missing 600,000 over fifties who seem to have disappeared from the labour market. I was alerted to this by economist Tony Wilson and now he’s back, looking at the latest ONS Data on their whereabouts.

And if you just want the pictures rather than the words then here’s a long thread with most of them in it https://t.co/m1WevvgaEf

— Tony Wilson (@tonywilsonIES) February 15, 2022

Compared with pre-crisis trends things look even worse. We’ve now 1.15m fewer people in labour force than we’d have expected (left) but look at right chart – now three fifths of this gap – nearly 700k fewer people – is explained by those over-50, especially older women 2/ pic.twitter.com/YA3HyJRzyU

— Tony Wilson (@tonywilsonIES) February 15, 2022

I think we need some caution here,  a large proportion of the 50-65 age group are affluent and have assets to fall back on. Many are in married or civil partnerships and are happy to share wealth and live off a partner’s income. All the same, it is worrying that so many people (especially women) are not economically productive or feathering their retirement nests.

This big growth in econ. inactivity is increasingly being explained by long-term ill health and (to some extent) early retiremnet. Distinctly different to earlier in crisis, where growth was students and lockdowns.
This means that overall… 3/ pic.twitter.com/WcLf72E2KY

— Tony Wilson (@tonywilsonIES) February 15, 2022

I suspect that many of my generation are finding that the rhythm of 30-40 years work has been broken. We are getting used to life at home and do not see any urgent reason to be economically productive.

Long-term ill health is now the most common reason for being out of work – rising consistently over last two years to overtake ‘students’ (who are increasingly taking up work).
Many will be people who had poor health pre-pandemic, but have left work or not been able to return 4/ pic.twitter.com/XIulVsitbF

— Tony Wilson (@tonywilsonIES) February 15, 2022

This is worrying. It suggests that the hospital waiting lists are impacting on our capacity to work and this certainly seems more likely for older people.

As a result, the employment ‘gap’ for disabled people is now rising – edging above 29 percentage points compared to non-disabled ppl. Gap for older people widening too after decades of falls. (More positively, gap continues to narrow for ethnic minority groups overall) 5/ pic.twitter.com/DG2FxHQf6X

— Tony Wilson (@tonywilsonIES) February 15, 2022

The prognosis for the long-term sick and disabled as they head towards later life is not good. This is where the financial and physical wellbeing issues are most concerning. To what extent the pandemic has contributed to this remains to be seen.

As with previous months, this is all happening despite record vacancies – with the latest data showing continued rises across all industries even despite Omicron.
We have never had as many job openings as we do now. Labour supply just cannot keep up with demand. 6/ pic.twitter.com/k00tooCPEq

— Tony Wilson (@tonywilsonIES) February 15, 2022

I suspect that this is also a result of a fall in economic migrants since Brexit. Hopefully we can do both refugees and our economy a failure and accommodate a large number of UK-rainians.  See my recent blog.

This is driving now the tightest jobs market in at least 50 years, with nearly as many unemployed as their our vacancies.
Firms saying they’ve never had it this hard to recruit, but we’ve 600k fewer people in work than two years ago. 7/ pic.twitter.com/JGWF288mUY

— Tony Wilson (@tonywilsonIES) February 15, 2022

This supports my theory that people are looking at the minimum normal retirement age as a landmark and using retirement savings as a bridge to the state pension – rather than an income for life. This is tricky if you are trying to claim universal credit, which may explain why so many of the over 55s aren’t appearing on the official jobless figures

Clear signs too that this is leading to some people having to work more hours than they want – with ‘over-employment’ now at a record high (3.5m, or 11% of those in work) while under-empoyment is at lowest in over a decade. 8/ pic.twitter.com/179DfsyOe1

— Tony Wilson (@tonywilsonIES) February 15, 2022

This again suggests that the labour shortfall is most acute for the lower paid. I support a further  increase in the minimum wage while calling for immigration restrictions for refugees to be eased (not just for those from the Ukraine.

A possible green shoot though? Looking at the single-month figures for employment and inactivity (yellow lines below), December was strong for both. This data is very volatile, but it’s just possible things might start to improve in next few months… 9/ pic.twitter.com/DRFzmccBQb

— Tony Wilson (@tonywilsonIES) February 15, 2022

While the other good news is continued improvement in long-term unemployment – where we’re clearly now thru the worst.
I think this shows that good policy plus action can work (young people), but for over-50s I fear much of this is due to ppl leaving labour force entirely. 10/ pic.twitter.com/WNvvDlhXVO

— Tony Wilson (@tonywilsonIES) February 15, 2022

It would be interesting to see how the big workplace pensions see this. I would expect to see a large number of  the over 50s moving to “deferred” status as they leave employment and many claiming their pots. If any of the policy people for NOW, Peoples Pension, Nest, Cushon or Smart of the large insurers are reading, it would be great to hear your stories. Here’s how Patrick Thompson, who works for Phoenix Standard Life sees it.

How are people funding this?

Well among 50-65 y olds (too young for State Pension):
49% are drawing private pensions
45% from savings
23% from partner or family
13% redundancy pay

But once they’re spent, they’re spent. Just when you want to be saving more for the future
(5/9)

— Patrick Thomson (@paddythomson) March 1, 2022

Being outside the workplace and not registered for benefits is fine so long as you are affluent, have your full state pension entitlement and have a financial plan for later life. In my experience such plans often relies on the numbers coming in on the lottery, or similar windfalls.

What would entice people back to work? Well for 50-65 y olds it’s interesting…

Half (52%) would for the money

But the top reason (57%) is for the social company or enjoyment of the job. This is even more true if you look at only those in their 50s (61%)
(7/9)

— Patrick Thomson (@paddythomson) March 1, 2022

If, as I suspect, many of the 700,000 older “non-workers” are sitting at home and living off the windfall of a pension pot, then we do have a workplace issue that is quite new and unexpected.

What would entice people back to work? Well for 50-65 y olds it’s interesting…

Half (52%) would for the money

But the top reason (57%) is for the social company or enjoyment of the job. This is even more true if you look at only those in their 50s (61%)
(7/9)

— Patrick Thomson (@paddythomson) March 1, 2022

Thanks to Tony Wilson and Patrick Thompson for their threads and thanks to the ONS for the underlying data