Performance evaluation for WTP (the Dutch pensions law)

Rogier Swierstra describes this blog as

“A bonus post for English-language readers, but still largely incomprehensible”.

You can find it in its original here. I thank him for his heroic modesty and have changed the title as most people don’t know what WTP stands for (me included!)


A peculiarity of the Dutch pension system is that the bulk of pensions are occupational: key choices for participants are made collectively in collective labour agreements (CLAs). This limits the flexibility for individuals, but similarly employers are legally bound by agreements negotiated with trade unions on their behalf.

Since participants and employers are effectively captive clients, there is no market discipline for pension funds. Hence the need to provide discipline from a regulator, so there is some escape hatch to exit funds that fail to meet the needs of their stakeholders. Funds that significantly underperform an investment benchmark can, theoretically, be disqualified from the CLA mandate

This had become an entirely theoretical exercise, and a prime example of regulatory capture. Funds were effectively setting their own benchmarks and excluding a large part of their performance—allocation choices, hedging policies, as well as private market investments—from the calculation. I am not aware of any fund that ever failed this test, though many will have had anxious moments.

New law (WTP, the Future Pensions Act) justified a review of the performance test, and the ministry just held a consultation (NL). My comment is that this test should be a meaningful benchmark for the entirety of the fund’s activities—not only a benchmark of a fund’s investment management as currently, but evaluating all its policy choices as well. CFA has a list of characteristics of good benchmarks1, that says

In essence, a high quality benchmark or index should be

  1. free of conflicts of interest;
  2. provide independent review/pricing; and
  3. have transparent methodology.

Judging by the proposal and the submissions, this is surprisingly hard to do well.

I also have a proposal2 that I’ve discussed before: buried deep in the law’s description of risk appetite is a prescription for how to describe a fund’s risk-free reference.

Further horizons: the risk-free rate

This hypothetical risk-free investment policy3 (HRFIP, or HGRMBB in Dutch) provides a benchmark for setting the risk appetite, but it can also provide a benchmark for performance evaluation! Since this HRFIP is already calculated for regulatory reporting, revalue it after 5 years to see what a risk-free investment policy would have delivered over that period, and employ some good consultants (lawyers?) to explain if your fund’s actual investment performance hasn’t met that baseline4.

This risk-free return should be the starting point of a serious attribution analysis. Governance of occupational funds in the Netherlands will IMO be materially improved if there is transparancy and accountability for board policy decisions, such as allocation and LDI, as these are much more important performance drivers than any added value of investment management.

1

They almost spell SMART: Specified in advance, Measurable, Appropriate, Unambiguous and Owned (the agent must accept accountability for relative performance). SMAUO. I’ve left out investible, which is more relevant in the asset management than policy context.

2

Or I wouldn’t be talking about it here…

3

Of projected inflation-indexed pension benefits. The regulato DNB has the goods (NL).

The regulatory test should include some surcharge for the level of risk taken, but my argument is about correctly defining the baseline.


Understood – thanks Rogier


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By Rogier Swierstra
The opposite of “get rich quick”. Pensions and long-term investing, finance solutions for society and a changing environment. Posts Wed & Fri, semi-regularly.
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About henry tapper

Founder of the Pension PlayPen,, partner of Stella, father of Olly . I am the Pension Plowman
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1 Response to Performance evaluation for WTP (the Dutch pensions law)

  1. The “tyranny of benchmarks” refers to the harmful, counterproductive, and often rigid fixation on quantifiable metrics, leading to goal distortion, “gaming” the system, and a decline in genuine quality or long-term value.

    This phenomenon often causes individuals and organisations to prioritise easily measurable, short-term targets over complex, long-term, or qualitative goals, suppressing innovation. 

    The hypothetical entirely risk-averse investment policy is such that the inflation risk in the expected payout flow is fully hedged by means of real bonds, with real bond prices derived from the uniform scenario set, whatever that means.

    In the UK index-linked over 5 year gilts have returned minus 10.3% per annum while RPI has averaged 6.7% and CPI has averaged 5.1% per annum over the past 5 years.

    Leveraged LDI would have fared even worse?

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