Rishi back as favorite – but watch out for Kemi!

Odds at 7am Sunday

There now appears to be violent opposition to Penny Mordaunt becoming the next Tory leader (and thus prime minister). This is reflected in a change in the odds where both Rishi Sunak and Kemi Badenoch have seen their odds slashed over the past 24 hours. Compares Sunday’s numbers with Saturday’s- below (on Saturday Badenoch was 20-1 and she didn’t make my frame).

Odds at 7am Saturday

Liz Truss’ odds remain solidly between 5 and 6 to one , Sunak is the new favorite, Badenoch’s odds have halved and Mordant is nearly two to one against having been odds on earlier in the week.

The sentiment seems to be summed up in this tweet.

Markets may well feel comforted that Rishi Sunak’s tax and spend appears to be gaining ground against the various strands of free market liberalism on offer elsewhere.

But does Rishi really represent a break with the past, or just the Winchester College variation on the same old theme of austerity?


The unexpected Badenoch bounce

The Spectator has conducted some research among conservative activists

This is where the impetus for Badenoch’s halving in odds seems to have come from. While activists don’t necessarily represent the wider membership, there appears to be a new popularity for a candidate who I’d never heard of, before last week!

Kemi Badenoch


About henry tapper

Founder of the Pension PlayPen,, partner of Stella, father of Olly . I am the Pension Plowman
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