There now appears to be violent opposition to Penny Mordaunt becoming the next Tory leader (and thus prime minister). This is reflected in a change in the odds where both Rishi Sunak and Kemi Badenoch have seen their odds slashed over the past 24 hours. Compares Sunday’s numbers with Saturday’s- below (on Saturday Badenoch was 20-1 and she didn’t make my frame).
Liz Truss’ odds remain solidly between 5 and 6 to one , Sunak is the new favorite, Badenoch’s odds have halved and Mordant is nearly two to one against having been odds on earlier in the week.
The sentiment seems to be summed up in this tweet.
‘If you’re an ‘Anyone But Mordaunt’ MP (and I’ve met quite a few of those in recent days) and have given up on Truss, then the question is whether Sunak or Kemi would be more likely to sink Penny…’
✍️ Fraser Nelsonhttps://t.co/cOMcIFtRwj
— The Spectator (@spectator) July 16, 2022
Markets may well feel comforted that Rishi Sunak’s tax and spend appears to be gaining ground against the various strands of free market liberalism on offer elsewhere.
But does Rishi really represent a break with the past, or just the Winchester College variation on the same old theme of austerity?
The unexpected Badenoch bounce
The Spectator has conducted some research among conservative activists
This is where the impetus for Badenoch’s halving in odds seems to have come from. While activists don’t necessarily represent the wider membership, there appears to be a new popularity for a candidate who I’d never heard of, before last week!