Stuart McDonald – everyone’s favourite Covid19 actuary
Stuart’s first tweet thread on the ICNARC data can be read here. This is part two and it’s co-morbid.
The latest @ICNARC report is out. Let’s see if I can do a summary which is both jargon-free and typo-free this week (feedback welcome).
I won’t focus on dispelling the “at deaths door” myth this week as lots of great research is now coming out making that point strongly. /1
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) April 25, 2020
Full report is here and runs to 4pm on 23 April. It covers 6,720 patients, with outcome data on 4,078 of them; 2,067 deaths and 2,011 discharged from critical care.
I’m summarising the report on behalf of @ICS_updates and @COVID19actuary. /2https://t.co/sB4BjabUw9
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) April 25, 2020
I loved this new chart – both for its clarity and for the good news message it illustrates. It is clear that we are well past the first peak of ICU admissions.
Social distancing really works. Let’s keep it up. /3 pic.twitter.com/iW0mBTdsKb
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) April 25, 2020
Not much change in week in Fig 5 (was Fig 4 last week) which still shows concentration in London (top 3!) and surrounding areas as well as Birmingham, Manchester and Merseyside. /4 pic.twitter.com/bdfBtDnvLq
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) April 25, 2020
Some changes to Table 1 which now has more demographic info.
A socioeconomic gradient in ICU admissions is very clear!
As @maitlis so powerfully articulated two weeks ago, this disease is NOT a great leveller.
More deprived people are both more exposed and more vulnerable. /5 pic.twitter.com/ZFyhCrv5oV
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) April 25, 2020
Table 2 now shows us the info on severe comorbidities (only 8% of ICU patients) and ability to live without assistance prior to admission (93% of ICU patients). These are little changed since my first analysis four weeks ago. /6 pic.twitter.com/1oQJiu83As
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) April 25, 2020
Barely any change in age and sex distribution. Three quarters of ICU patients are males. It seems males aged 50-80 are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 when compared to non-COVID viral pneumonia. /7 pic.twitter.com/roEzyPuNYa
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) April 25, 2020
As the numbers get bigger it‘s harder to dismiss the difference between the ethnicity of ICU patients and what we’d expect based on location.
Compared to whites, admissions are:
– Asians, 50% more likely
– Blacks, twice as likely
– Others, more than 4 times as likely!— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) April 25, 2020
note – Stuart points out that that this should read – Asians 50% more likely
Key ethnicity👆question is why?
As @edgeb12 pointed out last week, the location info is nearly 10 years old, so ethnic minority population may be higher in key areas.
Or are there differences in exposure and/or susceptibility between ethnicities?
Research is much needed! /9
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) April 25, 2020
That’s it for me for this week. Great to see admissions falling for now but COVID-19 is still a huge threat. Please stay at home if you can.
Thanks to @aroradrn for suggesting these updates.
You can support the intensive care community here. /14 https://t.co/dpK8NpXSbD
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) April 25, 2020