A defining moment for the Conservative party.
We have voted in a Conservative Government and by the end of 2024 we will have pretty well fifteen years with a Conservative Prime Minister. The Labour party has made just one gain and has ended 11% behind its bitter rival. The Liberal Democrats are in bits, Brexit will happen and we await to find which Boris Johnson turns up today.
The English heartland
The people who have voted the Conservatives a big majority yesterday have chosen Conservative candidates. If you believe in the democratic system we have in the UK (and I don’t believe there is a better) then we must accept first and foremost, that it is not what the losers did wrong but what the winners did right; – that matters now.
What the Conservatives did right was to create a coherent view of the future that wiped out UKIP and BREXIT and united England and Wales. They now properly represent England (and to a degree Wales) in a formidable way.
They are no longer the party of the South
The Celtic fringe
It is clear the Conservatives do not represent Scotland and that Northern Ireland is as nationalist in its political representative as it has ever been. One nation Conservatism is for the English nation, the United Kingdom is disunited.
One constitutional crisis may be ending , but another is erupting (again).
Chaos for Remain
City and Westminster – a case in point.
I live and work in the City of London and supported Chukka Umanna candidacy, canvassing and distributing leaflets. I am disappointed by this
Breaking news: Chuka Umunna has failed to turn up for the declaration in Westminster, where he came 2nd against Tory Nickie Aiken in Cities of London & Westminster. pic.twitter.com/eP1t4ZXZLY
— Jon Craig (@joncraig) December 13, 2019
Nothing could show the utter stupidity of the opposition parties than the split of the votes in this constituency
And as for the polls….
Congratulations to Con Keating and Albert Tapper who correctly advised me to go long on a conservative majority of 26 (the prediction of the book-makers).
The polls were a lot more right than wrong.
Con 41, Lab 32, LD14
Con 41, Lab 36, LD12
Con 42, Lab 36, LD12
Con 45, Lab 33, LD12
Con 43, Lab 34, LD11
Con 43, Lab 33, LD12
Con 44, Lab 32, LD12
Con 45, Lab 35, LD10
Con 43, Lab 34, LD12
— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) December 11, 2019
And of course the exit poll was, once again, right.
And the market knew it
— QuickTake by Bloomberg (@QuickTake) December 13, 2019
What happens now (for pensions)
I don’t know much beyond my chosen area of expertise – pensions. From what I can see on pensions, the Conservatives are the least untrustworthy party with some progressive policies.
If the Conservatives choose to , they can now return to the fundamental pension issue which has been kicked down the road these past thirty years.
If this exit poll is correct then this puts pension tax reform back on the table (because obviously it’s all about pensions)
— Tom McPhail (@PensionsMonkey) December 12, 2019
I expect to see the Pensions Bill to return in the Queen’s Speech. Whether Guy Opperman remains as Pensions Minister is a matter for him, other opportunities may be open to him, continuity is best for pensions.
We get what we vote for
Despite a rotten campaign and rotten weather, we generally voted and turn-out was only down a percentage point despite this being the third election vote in five years and the fourth national vote (if we include the EU referendum).
Anyone who blames this result on the media, the weather, Brexit or even Jeremy Corbyn is insulting the electorate. We voted – in England at least – for Boris Johnson. Those who can’t get why – had better get used to having him – and his style , in charge.
Johnson’s trump card was he was the person who represented what the electorate had chosen. That is the chastening lesson of this election – for many – including me.
The Conservatives now represent working class people in England and has achieved , (from privilege), what Donald Trump achieved in America.
What should be truly shocking for Momentum , the Unions and the Labour Party is that while Labour votes fell 6% in middle class seats, it feel 12% in what are considered working class constituencies.
Labour – and by extension the Unions and Momentum, are no longer the voice of the working person. It is Boris Johnson who is speaking their language.