The FT kick off the week reporting something that you’ve been reading on this blog and in the pension trade press, the flow of pensions to insurance annuities is slowing as the size of buy-ins and buy-outs slows. Thanks Mary McDougall and Lee Harris for this; (free link for early birds).

The FT make the slowdown political and indeed a section of the Pension Schemes Bill (debated last week in the House of Lords) will make it easier for sponsors of DB schemes for pensioners in the private sector to get at surpluses.
Insurers bought up about £40bn of assets through pension “buyout” deals completed last year, according to preliminary estimates from consultancies LCP and Mercer, down from £48bn in 2024 and £49bn in 2023.
The FT report results from Just and Aviva. both of whom are below expectations. Big deals such as Ford’s £4.6bn buy-in with L&G are few and far between.
FT reports the increasing ownership of American private equity houses in what were UK insurers. These include PIC, Just and Utmost, all of which have found the capital needed to do the trades abroad, often reverting to funded reinsurance in Bermuda.
While the insurers say guns are lined up for a demolition of investment in DB schemes in 2026, we heard them say much the same in previous years and despite DB schemes being in a financial position to sell up, the FT report a different mood
But some trustees are now rethinking whether to sell their defined-benefit schemes, considering whether they can instead retain them and share more surplus assets with members and their employers.
What has not happened as we might have expected back in 2018 when a Conservative Government announced Superfunds is deals with superfunds. What we have got by way of superfund so far is the “bridge to buy-out” model pioneered by Clara. Whether this is considered a clean break with insurance is doubtful.
So far the only financial transaction that has happened to ensure the future of DB pensions in “run-on” has been the Aberdeen/Stagecoach Pension Scheme transfer.
Companies are also looking closely at a deal made by Stagecoach with Aberdeen last year where the asset manager took over as the “sponsoring employer” of the bus company’s scheme, with the aim of growing the surplus and sharing it with members of the pension scheme.
That is not to say that large companies are not renewing their conviction to run on pension schemes that many thought were in the past. With the new conviction that pensions can be a source of capital for sponsors is an increasing feeling that pensions can be deferred pay for staff and not just those in DB. There are many companies, larger and smaller, looking at the failure of the private pension sector to deliver pensions this century.
For them the DB era where pensions are guaranteed is not returnable to for future accrual. But CDC represents a type of pension at a fixed cost to employers that many are looking at as a replacement to the pensions they gave up when DB schemes closed.
I am pleased that FTs insurance and pension reporters are writing an article together that questions what a couple of years back was taken as fact; annuities are no longer being seen as the gold-plated solution for sponsors and members of private sector DB plans.
This blog has been saying for some time that when Britain decides to grow its economy again, the revival of pensions will be very evident.
What makes CDC more efficient than DC at providing pensions is the pooling of risks and an indeterminately long investment time horizon. Both these factors apply to DB pensions as well, however in CDC all the benefits of strong investment performance flow to the Member; whereas in DB they are shared between the sponsor and the members in run-on and surplus distribution flow. However in open DB these benefits flow to the sponsor through the “balance of cost” arrangement.
I do believe that employer/sponsors, particularly smaller companies will increasingly seek to harness these benefits, especially looking at potential increases in minimum employer auto-enrolment contributions.
With an auto-enrolment eligible DB pension scheme the minimum contributions are replaced by a minimum benefit test, which in current investment conditions could expect to be fully funded with a 8% contribution. Surpluses generated by productive investment policies first creates a surplus buffer against any short term asset valuation issues (remember as long as the contributions into a pension scheme exceed the payments out, falls in market values are good news for the pension scheme as it is buying assets cheaper). Once the Trustees and the Employer are satisfied the surplus is sufficiently large they can then agree a Schedule of Contributions which permits a limited period reduction in the employer’s funding rate.
So the re-opening of DB pension benefits is not being done for paternalistic or even recruitment and retention purposes, but to effectively create an additional income stream for the employer.
Historically I get this but we are in unusual times for democracy and free markets which we have not had to consider before. Looking at Martin Wolf and Andrew Smithers work in 2025 there are new trends to consider.
Smithers + Wolf = Double Warning
Combining both analyses:
Martin Wolf: Democratic capitalism failing → political instability, slow growth, potential inflation
Andrew Smithers: Equity markets 160% overvalued → mean reversion likely over next decade
Together they suggest:
∙ Stagflation scenario (slow growth + inflation + market decline)
∙ This is the worst possible environment for equity income strategies
∙ And exactly Henry’s call for ideas for his 8-10 year window
What steps can be taken to position for these risks with high deficits limiting central bank’s influence ?
I am very interested in Mutuals. Along with other professionals , I am looking to create a Pensions Mutual where the profits from a well run CDC can be returned to participating employers on a stakeholder contributor basis. This works like a farmer working with a dairy, profits are returned on the basis of the contribution – as farmers get profits depending on the litres of milk they contribute over the year