The spread on the betting exchanges between Trump and Harris continue to tighten but money continues to back Harris as the impact of recent interventions to bolster Trump’s odds dilute
According to Robert Armstrong, in this morning’s Unhedged, the same is happening in the US. Robert may not be aware of what looks suspiciously like market manipulation (as reported by the Guardian and Con Keating).
Good morning. It brings joy to Unhedged’s cold and cynical heart when markets, however briefly, work as they are supposed to.
A few days ago the prediction markets’ odds on the presidential election had gotten absurdly wide, heavily favouring Trump. With polls looking about even, this made no sense. But, in the last few days, greed prevailed and the odds have closed — Kalshi, for example, is favouring Trump at 53-47 per cent as we write this, not far from the polls-of-polls models.
Uncertainty may be exasperating, but in this case it’s rational.
The FT is reporting the dollar weakening as the markets rein in bets on Trump winning
Betting markets have shifted sharply in the final days before the vote. The odds on a Trump victory have narrowed to 54 per cent on Kalshi, a US futures exchange, and to 58 per cent on Polymarket, an offshore cryptocurrency exchange. Last week, the marketplaces had priced a Trump win at 64 per cent and 67 per cent respectively.
The IOWA poll that gave Harris a surprise 3% lead appears to have livened up affairs in the UK. The BBC is reporting
Rather than being dismissed as a random outlier, it’s getting a lot of attention.
Why? There are a few reasons:
- Iowa hasn’t been a swing state since 2012, the last year a Democrat won it – so this poll is a bit shocking
- The poll was conducted by Ann Selzer, who is considered one of the US’s most accurate pollsters, especially in Iowa
- The poll suggests that women and independents, key voting groups, are the ones shifting toward Harris
Selzer told the BBC on Sunday it’s the 2-1 margin among women aged 65 and older that could be moving the needle most significantly.
“There’s obviously something going on here,” Selzer said. “Older people is who you want to appeal to, because they’re the most reliable voters, and Kamala Harris is doing very well with that group.”
So now the question that some are asking is: If Harris is doing so well with women and independents in Iowa, could she find similar success among women and independents across the Midwest?
Meanwhile , whatever the declared result , we are going to get a protracted political version of VAR with players watching the big screen for days and maybe weeks while the various conspiracy theories being launched today – are investigated.
I suspect that the VAR period will be slightly shorter if Trump is declared the victor.
