Not many horses get discounted to 10-1 against in a two horse race to go on and win.

Odds – Monday morning

But this morning’s odds see that Sunak’s odds have more than halved – though he’s still trailing by a huge amount.

Tuesday morning odds

This is the first time the odds have moved in Sunak’s favour for ten days. Election papers will be dropping through Tory letterboxes this morning.

Has Liz peaked too early?

Has Penny Mordaunt’s endorsement gone down the wrong way?

Is Rishi finally getting the hang of it and looking to appeal to the 150,000 members – not the country?

Or are the members thinking about the needs of the country more than their own?

The answers to these questions will be known on September 5th, but between now and then , I’ll keep reporting the odds and following the fortunes of our two candidates.