The statistics keep coming and our man with his eye on the data is Stuart McDonald (aka @actuarybyday) Here is his interpretation of what’s happening with some sobering thoughts in case we thought it was all over.
Latest ONS deaths data (to w/e 15 May) has been released.
The impact of COVID-19 is still clear, though looks overstated in-week by a catch-up after VE Day.
4,385 more deaths than normal were recorded in-week.
Year to date there have been 22% more deaths than the 5-year avg. pic.twitter.com/ksKwNa9ST6
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) May 26, 2020
The best way to compare 2020 to earlier years is to examine age-standardised death rates.
Comparing death counts can be distorted by the age & growth of population.
The CMI will report on this basis later today. This will include an estimate of total excess deaths year-to-date.
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) May 26, 2020
The CMI report I referenced earlier has now been published.https://t.co/5gwK0iIVAu https://t.co/OC9s0Z6Ejw
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) May 26, 2020
The CMI’s Mortality Monitor is publicly available.
Link https://t.co/5iHhfogRuL pic.twitter.com/nO8PJRfjud
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) May 26, 2020
The Downing Street briefings no longer show international comparisons – perhaps this is why.
Although Brazil has overtaken the UK as the second worst affected country in the world, our excess deaths are still higher than all our peer nations apart from the US.
The idea that we can walk back into the sunshine now that it’s stopped raining is a bad idea.
For historical balance, I’m reminded by another ace actuary – Paul McGlone that while the increase in mortality rates due to Covid-19 is awful, it’s not long ago that UK mortality rates were much higher than we’re experiencing this year.
