It’s not just in the world of life and pensions that the threat to UK insurance is being noted
The question Parul Kaul-Green
is asking is why we so undervalue firms like L&G or is it “why do american markets so over-value Apollo?
Clearly, and this I hadn’t realised, the general insurance world has the same threat as life insurance
If Hiscox follows Beazley out of the public market, the London-listed Lloyd’s specialty sector effectively disappears as an investable equity asset class. The expertise, capital, and underwriting culture that makes Lloyd’s function would be owned primarily from Zurich, Toronto, and New York.
I don’t mean to sound naive, but I thought that London was the home of Lloyds and its “function”. I thought that we as a nation had the annuity industry that everyone else envies?
We are about to have a world cup in America where we will present ourselves as the home of football, no matter how much better Europe and South America have been over the last 10o years , we still are regarded as a favorite!
We ought to ask whether don’t value ourselves a little less than others do – a little less than we are worth!
What is you prediction?
Here is what the prediction market is pricing this morning:
17% Recession in 2026. The lowest level all year. Down from 39% in March. The market says the economy does not shrink.
40% Stagflation by December. The highest level ever. Up from 11% three months ago. The market says inflation does not stop.
21% Soft landing. The scenario Wall Street has been selling for two years. Now at its lowest level in the contract’s history.
57% Zero rate cuts in 2026. More likely than not. The Fed stays frozen all year.
Read those four numbers together. The economy keeps growing. Inflation keeps rising. The Fed does nothing. And the soft landing everyone promised is at 21%.
Trump gets outmanovered and puts boots on the ground in 3 months time rather than admit failure of a dumb war
Prefer the horses for bets, John. But I can’t see too much in the way of interest rate cuts- can you?