This is the video of a sensible discussion debating the value of having a pension commission
Holidays had taken many of those we wanted there abroad. Steve (the boss) had been in Malta, Bryn (the Lord) was in Spain and Andy Young was in Annecy and out of reach
I am pleased to have had Andy Agethangelou in the audience, a kind plaudit for Pension PlayPen, he wants us to write something for someone (fat chance Andy- we’re all on holiday!)
Thanks too to old friend Alan Chaplin who has introduced me to FT whizz columnist and editor Stephen Bush. We want more cute minds like Steve to speak. There aren’t many as good as him and so young!
The Debate
Unfortunately , we lost our chair to Spanish internet failure- early on. We didn’t quite get to the central contention, that this is either a meaningful Pension Commission or a La La Savings Convention.
Having sat on a couple of hideous marketing events for banks and insurance companies, purporting to be about “adequacy”, I will not take my devil’s mask off, we cannot wast our time worrying why the self-employed and ethnic and spiritual minorities don’t get excited about mainstream workplace pensions. What do we want to do – make everyone the same? Think before you homogenise behaviour.
The session was good on this , but it would be with Margaret Snowden on it, she is not the kind of person uber- liberals understand , but those who have been ripped off know that Margaret’s on their side.
The video also gives us a new Tom McPhail, at last free from retail capture, he is speaking with the kind of authority that suggests a later life career in politics – fancy it Tom?
We had Arun Muralidhar on the video too, he was as bright as anyone and he restrains his salesmanship till being taunted into a Selfie rant right at the end! He’d earned the right to be what we need more!
Great contributions from Padraig Floyd on being self-employed and tough stuff from Peter Cameron Brown in the chat.
Thanks Bryn, pre-dating any Commission
There are very few good things going on in August, I see most of the usual events have packed it in but we had a great crowd and many dialling in from holidays.
Which brings me the Lord of Brixton, Bryn Davies! How glad we should be to have you in the House of Lords for the next 18 months Bryn, thanks for being with us, for contributing though not quite every minute! I feared you had been Brexited but I was wrong – you were great!
A Pension not a La La Savings commission please! (video)
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Sorry I could not participate in the excellent Tuesday meeting. I sent my note taker so an interesting debate. I was surprised that there was little emphasis on the risks that could give a further shock to the UK economy.
The first risk is the treatment of statistics in the US, the numbers are relied upon by markets and if politicised, say on inflation figures, it could trigger an exedus from indenxed bonds. Who know where market sentiment would go???
Government debt per capita in the UK over age 18 is around £52,000 ( in the USA £85,000)
Domestically the report that I ahve just read is a further reason for concen It will not take much to tip a fragile market.
https://niesr.ac.uk/publications/uk-economic-outlook-chancellors-trilemma?type=uk-economic-outlook
Summary below for a study group later today
The UK’s Fiscal Balancing Act: A Chancellor’s Challange
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has just released its latest outlook—and it paints a rather sobering picture for the UK Government. In what it calls “The Chancellor’s Trilemma,” the report suggests that it’s looking increasingly unlikely the Government can deliver on all three of its major pledges:
– 🎯 *Meet fiscal targets* set last October
– 🧾 *Maintain spending plans* announced in June 2025
– 🙅♂️ *Avoid tax hikes* on “working people,” as promised in its last manifesto
So what does NIESR see coming down the track?
📈 Inflation: A Slow Descent
NIESR projects inflation will gradually drop toward the Government’s target over the next three years:
– 2025: 3.3%
– 2026: 2.8%
That’s slightly higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates from earlier this year. Persistent wage growth and April’s National Living Wage increase could keep upward pressure on prices through the short term.
🏦 Interest Rates: Easing Ahead
Despite economic uncertainty, the Bank of England is expected to continue easing rates cautiously:
– Two 25 basis-point cuts in 2025
– Another cut in 2026, bringing rates down to 3.5%
It’s a delicate dance—balancing economic support while keeping inflation in check.
( I can see no reason that inflation will drop RPI is still 3.6% and forward indicators look like 4% before the year end and for the foseable future……)
💼 Public Finances: A Widening Gap
The Government is struggling to stay on course with its fiscal mandate:
– £71 billion deficit in 2024/25
– Already £44.5 billion in deficit in the first quarter of 2025—£6.5 billion more than this time last year
– Forecast for 2029/30: a £41.2 billion deficit, well off the target of a balanced budget
As the report notes, “Substantial adjustments in the Autumn Budget will be needed” to comply with existing fiscal rules.
🏚️ Living Standards: A Tale of Inequality
The poorest 10% of UK households continue to bear the brunt:
– 1.3% drop in living standards this year
– Still 10% below pre-Covid levels
Meanwhile, middle- and higher-income households may see modest improvement in 2025/26, but the lowest-income families will likely fall further behind. Rising housing and food costs are outpacing their income growth.
🔍 Final Thoughts
The NIESR report is a timely reminder of the delicate balancing act facing the UK Chancellor. Meeting fiscal rules, avoiding tax hikes, and maintaining spending—all while navigating a fragile economy—is no small feat.
Will the upcoming Autumn Budget bring clarity and bold decisions? Time will tell.