There’s a moment in this week’s VFM podcast when one of the co-presenters refers to the “three main parties”. It turns out he means the Labour, Conservative and Liberal parties.

But to a great mass of British voters, getting on for one in five, the stated voting intention is for a party none of us had even heard of a couple of years ago – that party “Reform”.

Those of us who’ve listened to the 7-part election debates these past weeks will know that the SDP and Plaid Cymru are in deadly earnest as is the Green party, all can legitimately claim to be major for those with niche interests.

There are parts of Britain as diverse as Orkney and Shetland at one end and Devon and Cornwall at the other , where Liberalism not Labour is the party of the underdog. There are areas of the South, especially the seaside towns most impacted by illegal immigration who will vote for whoever speaks loudest to stop the boats. There are deep rooted differences between north and south that do not make traditional sense- rich London is Labour , there are large parts of the rural north which are conservative. And the intellectual appeal of the Green party means that high culture centres like Brighton concentrate the environmental vote.

To say that we live in a three party state is to be stuck in last century’s Britain. Social Media can make a star of an artist in months, parties as well as people can go viral and the traditional hustings has given way to a populist arena where the audience isn’t measured in thousands but millions.

Last night, Reform ran an election broadcast without sound or movement, consisting of one slide

“Don’t worry folks, your TV’s not broken” – Nigel Farage told viewers who had stared at the silent slide for 5 minutes.

Reform is putting two fingers up to convention and showing that convention has no good way of fighting back. Neither Conservatives or Labour have an effective way of countering the terrorism of a man who refuses to play by the rules

This kind of serious disruption is usually discounted as the antics of a comedy candidate. Count Binface has worked out that he is best placed to take on Farage and he is supported by me and many others.

Farage should be debating @CountBinface, not Starmer.

— Prof Paul Bernal (@PaulbernalUK) June 14, 2024

Binface will announce his manifesto next week.

Manifesto mania?

The country is so underwhelmed by the production of party manifestos that the pension press has become their main commentators.

Who cares less about the legal wordings of documents designed to be wriggled out of as soon as they are launched?

With the best will in the world, the commentaries I have read and heard on what the three main parties intend to do on pensions make much less sense than Count Binface’s latest podcast.

We no longer judge politicians by what is written for them but by how they come across when put on the spot and so the election campaign is a series of clips of leaders making a mess of things (Sunak), fooling about (Davey) being boring (Starmer) or being despicably charming (Farage). I am leaving out other leaders as I’m not in their niches.

Vote “screw-up”, “prankster”, “dull” or “schmooze” as you choose.

Schmooze or you lose

The public vote will go to Labour but not by as much as it would have , had we not had an election campaign. There is a short runway for Starmer, Rayner & Co and until they say something that isn’t pre-scripted, they are in danger of reaching the end of it without taking off. I suspect that they have judged things right and that while we’ll be sick of them by July 4th, we won’t be sufficiently sick – not to vote.

We may not like politicians but we still know we need them and that is why we vote for the jesters (Davey and Farage – and to an extent – Binface). Sunak is no Trump , but Farage is.

Farage is more of a threat to conservatism than Conservatives give him credit for. He has schmoozed up to a huge number of people whose voice is not heard in the media (even social media) . Anyone who thinks one individual can’t take over an institution, should look to America.