The orange line tells us why Sadiq Khan has declared a”major incident” in London.
COVID-19 hospital admissions in London continue to accelerate, with 7-day average now up 42% week-on-week. Elsewhere increases are smaller, with falls in the East and Midlands.
For England overall, admissions are up 8%, but London gives an indication of what to expect. pic.twitter.com/H8TuSRbtww
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) December 17, 2021
Latest government data shows there are 1,534 Covid patients in London hospitals – up 28.6% on last week.
This is what is happening where I live
and the increases in infection are very much happening to younger people
You don’t have to be a Covid actuary to work out that the recent spike in infections around where I live is likely to lead to the orange line continuing to rise. The sequence is “get sick, if you are unlucky- go to hospital – if you are very unlucky- die. We haven’t got to dying yet and I hope that we won’t. We are learning to keep people alive but long Covid is still very unpleasant and a lot of people have got it.
We ought to be very cautious at this moment, but I didn’t see much caution yesterday. My lunchtime run takes me along the Thames past parliament square. Except I crossed the river rather than run into this.
My evening run took me through Smithfield market , one of London’s hotspots for bars and clubs. Be at One was heaving with young people at 6pm.
Familiarity breeds contempt
I don’t know where we have got this new found contempt for Covid. Perhaps it’s being vaxxed , but I doubt that many of the people I saw protesting or getting drunk yesterday were boosted.
These people had to get into central London and get out again, the spread of the new variant is at an R>3. The chances of reinfection are high, one or even two jabs aren’t enough and still people come to claim back “freedom”.
Interesting new report on Omicron in England from @MRC_Outbreak.
There is very little protection against reinfection from having previously been infected. Similarly protection against reinfection is low for those who have been vaccinated but not boosted. 1/6 https://t.co/TvfiwQ7hOI
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) December 18, 2021
Maybe we think we are now familiar with Covid. But we are not familiar with this new variant.
Living in a state of emergency
I don’t want to be a doomsayer. These waves pass.
Omicron cases in South African ground zero ‘peaked on 6 December’ https://t.co/A3iC9MWHPN
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) December 18, 2021
But right now, central London is very dangerous, especially where I live. Stay away, and if you live here – stay safe.