John Roberts
Thanks to the indefatigable John Roberts. Keep up the good work and be careful of that Zider!
An interesting release by ONS today on the characteristics of people testing positive recently. One noteworthy finding is that those who don’t wear masks are around 50% more likely to test positive (after adjusting for other demographic factors, eg age).
A short 🧵…
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) September 27, 2021
Younger ages were more likely to be positive – again we’ve seen that in the weekly surveys. Note that SW spike in young ages – this data was not long after Boardmasters, also 🏴 where schools had returned.
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) September 27, 2021
The report notes that those at higher risk of contact because of employment etc are encouraged to take regular tests. So it follows that when randomly surveyed they are more likely to be found to be positive.
Note also that a prior infection reduces your risk by over 50%.
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— John Roberts (@john_actuary) September 27, 2021
Note the comment re the “Not needed” category. It’s maybe surprising that the figure is as high as it is, but there’s a very wide confidence interval.
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) September 27, 2021
From this study I would conclude that those continuing to be cautious, wear masks etc are likely to be helping more to keep R down and suppress infections by not getting infected themselves (and thus then infecting others).
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— John Roberts (@john_actuary) September 27, 2021
Study here, including more data on sample sizes etc.
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) September 27, 2021