The charts are interesting.
This blog comes with a health warning – supplied by Stuart McDonald.
This age-stratified analysis is important when drawing conclusions from trends in case numbers. Cases are still trending up in older groups, so it’s likely that hospitalisations and deaths will increase for a while yet. https://t.co/ualBaUUXcU
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) August 29, 2021
Despite case numbers being 10 times higher than this time last year – as a Londoner, I don’ feel threatened. The geography of this wave is very different from the pattern we had got used to , these last 18 months. Having lived in the brown zone for much of them, I’m staying in London.
In England and Wales, it’s the South West that is being hit with the now infamous Boardmaster’s spike most prevalent in this region. But it’s Scotland and Northern Ireland which are the hot areas for infection – this will become more apparent as Nicola Sturgeon is now isolating.
Unlike England , where the rules around self-isolation are consistently applied, Scotland seems to be making it up as they go along and the numbers look awful
As Stormzy sang “take me back to London” on the Reading stage on Friday night, I thought back to the previous Friday when an LNER carriage took me to Kings Cross from Inverness in an empty carriage that should have been full of passengers on my tour.
My experience of the highlands and islands health boards suggests that they are totally unprepared for the tourism that they are opening themselves up to. That our group could not source lateral flow tests (let alone PCRs) from Kirkwall hospital when one of our number showed symptoms suggests the town is unprepared for the cruise ships which are now arriving in its harbor. It’s insane attempt to lock down 40 people with negative PCRs in hotel rooms in Kirkwall and Inverness was met by mass mutiny.
The isolation period is now over, I have received no messaging from these ineffective health boards, either as to why we were treated as we were or as to what the consequences of our early return to London will be.
Waning vaccines – waning worry.
The vaccines in my body are waning and I am told that I should be worried. I am not worried (as I used to be) . Infact, the experience we’ve had has made me defiant.
I will continue to wear a mask where it is polite to wear a mask and I will sanitize and distance where I can, but I do not throw rocks at kids gathering in Newquay, Reading or Leeds who have the right to congregate and the means to fight whatever Covid throws at them.
Sturgeon should resist calls for circuit-breakers and instead improve the processes of Scottish NHS boards which (from my experience) could do with review.
Now is the time to balance mental well-being with the risks of further infection. The long term damage to our youth of the past 18 months in terms of education and social skills will play out over time but if there is such a thing as “arrested development”, then we should not be risking making it worse right now.
Hospitalizations and deaths from Covid-19 look like increasing, especially in areas which have low immunity, but now is the time to “return to London”, to brave out the consequences of these summer festivals and accept that Covid-19 is just another feature in a world challenged by fundamental shifts in our relationship with society and our environment.
— Henry Tapper (@henryhtapper) August 30, 2021