John
Unlike April, this peak has come after a sustained period of increased activity throughout the Autumn too, with the cumulative number of patients now exactly double that admitted in the first wave. This can be seen in the occupancy stats next too.
2/15 pic.twitter.com/g4akxOmcFU
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) February 13, 2021
With daily case numbers falling rapidly it's of note that there were still over 2000 ICU admissions in the last fortnight. Even with lower prevalence in the community and vaccinations, we expect units to continue to be busy for some time yet.
4/15 pic.twitter.com/SFTAVI4DPd
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) February 13, 2021
Just the flu or pneumonia? Hardly. Admissions in Jan have been between 5 and 6 times normal pneumonia levels, so even allowing for the drop off in those, this can't just be a case of misattribution or replacement of one illness by another.
Flu next.
6/15 pic.twitter.com/8oiUWPSWXf
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) February 13, 2021
It's concerning that we are seeing significantly lower levels of heart related admissions again, along with slightly lower admissions for strokes.
Is this to do with lower activity in lockdown reducing actual cases, or that they are not being presented for some reason?
8/15 pic.twitter.com/MLe9LxtrDg
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) February 13, 2021
We continue to see the stark disparity in the level of admissions for the most deprived. This is likely to be reflective of many factors, relating to cramped living conditions, employment and ethnicity, all of which are linked.
10/15 pic.twitter.com/1O0K2KdrnB
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) February 13, 2021
So far in the second wave, in broad numbers around a third of the 21,859 patients have been completely discharged, a third have died, and a third are still either in ICU or acute hospital. Hopefully those now transferred to acute hospital beds are now recovering.
12/15 pic.twitter.com/eNcX49iZrr
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) February 13, 2021
By age though, there are slight improvements at some ages and more significant ones for the 50-59 and 70+ age groups. That suggests the older average age of patients (around 2 years) balances out improvements in care to give the overall similar outcome we've just seen.
14/15 pic.twitter.com/9FeyDiUlKC
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) February 13, 2021
With over 100 pages there is much more information than summarised here. https://t.co/vUgW3DKHBf
Sincere thanks to all intensivists and indeed all health service staff for their continuing and sustained exceptional efforts to save lives during the pandemic.
15/15 END
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) February 13, 2021