Here’s the graphical evidence that we are now in uncharted times.
Our estimate of R, based on admissions, is still around 1.3, with no indication yet of it lessening. It’s too early yet to judge whether the latest lockdown is having any effect, as it won’t influence admissions for a further week due to the delay between infection and adm’n. 2/4 pic.twitter.com/VwNdVQR5PE
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) January 9, 2021
In the text is an observation which is chilling. Stuart McDonald and John Roberts can give us no statistical evidence that going into tier 4 did us much good nor that the current lockdown is going to act as a break to the juggernaut ploughing through our health system.
Looking back, it seems we lost control of the reproduction rate in the late summer and we are now paying a price for those careless days on the beach and in the park.
The increase in hospital deaths appears to have accelerated in the last few days, and the moving average is now above 500, allowing for an estimate of deaths yet to be reported. With a typical week’s lag after admission until death, we expect this rate of increase to continue.3/4 pic.twitter.com/zerHJy8VaA
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) January 9, 2021
The only thing that’s changing is that the news is universally rather than regionally grim.
Regionally there’s less disparity now in terms of weekly growth. NE/Yorkshire is the lowest, though still growing at 24%, whereas at the other end of the spectrum, both the NW and SW are currently around 50%. The highest region, London, has grown by 30% in the last week. 4/4 END pic.twitter.com/FMFdanDxNK
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) January 9, 2021
Takeaways
This is a very frightening time to be living in Britain. Our infection, hospitalization and mortality rates are as high as anywhere in the world. Our health service is being put under an appalling strain as an estimated 46,000 medical staff are sick with the virus.
England’s chief medical Prof Chris Whitty said yesterday that, unless people started to follow the rules more strictly, emergency patients will have to be turned away from hospitals, causing “avoidable deaths”.
Writing in the Sunday Times, Prof Whitty said: “Every unnecessary interaction you have could be the link in a chain of transmission which has a vulnerable person at the end.”
We do not know if we are at peak or whether there are further peaks ahead of us, but we do know that now is not a time for us to be taking any chances. The takeaway from these really frightening graphs, curated to us by the Covid-19 actuaries is that we simply can’t be careful enough.
Stay safe everyone
Thanks to Stuart and John for their analysis.
