Stay safe everyone – this is it.

Here’s the graphical evidence that we are now in uncharted times.

In the text is an observation which is chilling. Stuart McDonald and John Roberts can give us no statistical evidence that going into tier 4 did us much good nor that the current lockdown is going to act as a break to the juggernaut ploughing through our health system.

Looking back, it seems we lost control of the reproduction rate in the late summer and we are now paying a price for those careless days on the beach and in the park.

The only thing that’s changing is that the news is universally rather than regionally grim.


This is a very frightening time to be living in Britain. Our infection, hospitalization and mortality rates are as high as anywhere in the world. Our health service is being put under an appalling strain as an estimated  46,000 medical staff are sick with the virus.

England’s chief medical Prof Chris Whitty said yesterday that, unless people started to follow the rules more strictly, emergency patients will have to be turned away from hospitals, causing “avoidable deaths”.

Writing in the Sunday Times, Prof Whitty said: “Every unnecessary interaction you have could be the link in a chain of transmission which has a vulnerable person at the end.”

We do not know if we are at peak or whether there are further peaks ahead of us, but we do know that now is not a time for us to be taking any chances. The takeaway from these really frightening graphs, curated to us by the Covid-19 actuaries is that we simply can’t be careful enough.

Stay safe everyone

Thanks to Stuart and John for their analysis.

About henry tapper

Founder of the Pension PlayPen,, partner of Stella, father of Olly . I am the Pension Plowman
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4 Responses to Stay safe everyone – this is it.

  1. John Roberts says:

    Thanks Henry. I do worry that this lockdown is rather weaker than the first one given the increased transmissibility of the new variant. Whilst we should start to see the benefit of vaccination in the oldest groups soon, we will still get many more deaths and serious illness in the younger age groups if the lockdown isn’t successful in suppressing the current spread given current levels of prevalence.

  2. henry tapper says:

    I went for my exercise this morning and ran past two teams of young men limbering up to play football in Hagerstown – East London. Shortly after, an ambulance came by, blue lights flashing.

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