On day one of lockdown, it is good to bring you, via the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group a generally positive set of numbers (unless you are reading this in Cornwall).
The latest update on England admissions and deaths following the weekend catch-up of deaths. Admissions growth has slowed in the last few days, with the doubling time extending to around 3 weeks. Let's hope this slowdown is maintained in the coming days. 1/4 pic.twitter.com/THPTnLSbKM
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) November 3, 2020
Similarly the increase in deaths has slowed from the doubling every 10 days we were seeing a week or so ago, once we adjust for estimated late reporting delays. Hopefully this will slow further in a week or so in line with the admissions figures above. 2/4 pic.twitter.com/wA2VPzCcWt
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) November 3, 2020
After a period of stability, our estimate of R has dipped a little to 1.2, consistent with the admissions slow down. It relates to mid Oct, so we should be starting to see some of the benefits of restrictions introduced around then, particularly in the North. 3/4 pic.twitter.com/vGOaGDXrRW
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) November 3, 2020
We can certainly see a noticeable change in the NW, which was subject to the first Tier 3 restrictions. The NE has slowed too. The fastest growth rates now are in the SE (though not London) and the SW, with the latter being particularly of concern. 4/4 END pic.twitter.com/mAoMs3TLfV
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) November 3, 2020