Latest thread covering COVID-19 admissions and deaths in English hospitals, with an updated R estimate.
While the PHE dashboard hasn’t yet been updated, @NHSEngland data indicates 870 admissions today. https://t.co/xkI8zMNbmu
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) October 20, 2020
Based on recent hospital admissions our estimate of R remains at around 1.3 at the last point we can estimate.
Obviously there is significant regional variation in both current admissions and current growth rate, which we discuss below. 2/4 pic.twitter.com/EPfKD2QX3Q
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) October 20, 2020
Average COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals is now over 80 a day, and it looks like Saturday 17 October will be the first day with over 100 hospital deaths in the second wave (once recording is up to date).
The doubling time is around ten days based on the recent trend. 3/4 pic.twitter.com/neH3BDoSSD
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) October 20, 2020
Regional situation here👇 https://t.co/4yn5LifyhL
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) October 20, 2020
And here’s the admissions data on a log scale (we’ve had a lot of requests for it). https://t.co/x0NQc2v4MH
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) October 20, 2020
Every admission (and even day elective surgery) requires a test, and has done since very early on, so community testing levels will have no impact on admission numbers. (For elective surgery if the test is positive, it doesn’t happen.)
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) October 20, 2020
Thanks for this. I guess the question is how many of these admissions will be displaced by covid if any? Considering flu didn’t materialise in the Southern Hemisphere and how that impacts capacity. Amazing how different flu seasons can be too.
— Ryan (@1nationtory) October 21, 2020