At a moment of heightened awareness and considerable confusion, it is useful to have the latest data on what is happening in England to hand. The COVID-19 actuaries have supplied this excellent thread for our better knowledge.
Latest COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths data for England has been published.
Daily admissions continue to increase rapidly. After accelerating last week the faster growth rate has sustained. Based on the current trend, the doubling time is around two weeks. /1 pic.twitter.com/Prui2wFX7d
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) October 15, 2020
Based on recent hospital admissions our estimate of R is around 1.3 at the last point we can estimate.
Obviously there is significant regional variation, which we discuss below. /2 pic.twitter.com/ZptE0PkwHD
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) October 15, 2020
Average daily COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals has now reached sixty.
The doubling time is around ten days based on the recent trend, though we expect this to follow the trend in admissions. /3 pic.twitter.com/URtfZ60Ka4
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) October 15, 2020
The regional picture continues to reflect the same north-south variation. Most regions continue to grow at around 30% to 40% per week, but the SE and SW are showing signs of accelerating, albeit from a lower base position. pic.twitter.com/EyZkdkY2FF
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) October 15, 2020
With the situation rapidly worsening we will increase the frequency of these updates, which will be on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays and will come from the main @COVID19actuary account. /5
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) October 15, 2020