Amidst all the noise, the bookies are prepared to make a market in the Brexit date – here are the Betfair Exchange odds.
You can now get nearly 5/2 against Britain leaving the EU this year. It is more likely at 2/1 that it will happen next and only just over 3/1 that it won’t happen before 2022.
The odds against a Brexit this year have been lengthening every day for the past fortnight as details leak out of what the Government is planning for – rather than shouting about.
The cost of No Deal is now estimated to increase UK Borrowing this year to £100 bn this year, according to “fiscal referee” the IFS. The FT report that a no deal would cost UK business £15bn in red tape., – numbers it has from HMRC.
Did not expect this at all
In IFS pre-Budget analysis with investment bank Citi…
Corbyn-led labour government (ditch brexit) leaves Britain 5% better off than Johnson-led Conservative Govt (no deal) by 2022
5% = £110bn a year
https://t.co/RSLm3x72bU via @financialtimes
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) October 8, 2019
And yet we are still being persuaded by posters, road traffic signs and television adverts to prepare for a Brexit on 31st October.
Undoubtedly I have better things to do than prepare for a no-deal, even if there is a deal – my common sense tells me it will happen next year and not this. If we crash out of the EU without a deal on Halloween night it will be the biggest waste of money since the last transfer window, the greatest stitch up since the Bayeux Tapestry.
I don’t know why I’m writing this, or why you are reading this. We are now into a facrcical world so topsy turvy that the Queen of Hearts and the Mad Hatter would be welcomed as business as usual.
The apathy party is the winner. The result is that the poor will pay.
We don’t have decent services and pensions because the country has failed to
Improve productivity. Corporate governance is an oxymoron.
We have two economies the bottom 60% and the top 20%
The balance is about to join the 60%
On Brexit clearly what was promised in the second referendum in 2016 cannot be delivered
The only way to break the stalemate ( in the gift of Parliament)is to revoke Article 50
And call a General Election in the hope that more will engage with facts
Rather than two word headlines painted on a bus
Maybe AgeWage should get a bus!
https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14426
I expect the IFS predictions will prove to be as accurate as their predictions before the referendum. All change brings opportunity and there is plenty to be optimistic about.
One can only hope that people learn just how risky it is ti gamble. Even the learned can be taught a lesson, however, some academics never seem to learn, IFS included.