“Brexit this year” – odds against

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Amidst all the noise, the bookies are prepared to make a market in the Brexit date – here are the Betfair Exchange odds.

You can now get nearly 5/2 against Britain leaving the EU this year. It is more likely at 2/1 that it will happen next and only just over 3/1 that it won’t happen before 2022.

The odds against a Brexit this year have been lengthening every day for the past fortnight as details leak out of what the Government is planning for – rather than shouting about.

The cost of No Deal is now estimated to increase UK Borrowing this year to £100 bn this year, according to “fiscal referee” the IFS. The FT report that a no deal would cost UK business £15bn in red tape., – numbers it has from HMRC.

 

And yet we are still being persuaded by posters, road traffic signs and television adverts to prepare for a Brexit on 31st October.

Undoubtedly I have better things to do than prepare for a no-deal, even if there is a deal – my common sense tells me it will happen next year and not this. If we crash out of the EU without a deal on Halloween night it will be the biggest waste of money since the last transfer window, the greatest stitch up since the Bayeux Tapestry.

I don’t know why I’m writing this, or why you are reading this. We are now into a facrcical world so topsy turvy that the Queen of Hearts and the Mad Hatter would be welcomed as business as usual.

made in westminster

 

About henry tapper

Founder of the Pension PlayPen, Director of First Actuarial, partner of Stella, father of Olly . I am the Pension Plowman
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3 Responses to “Brexit this year” – odds against

  1. John Mather says:

    The apathy party is the winner. The result is that the poor will pay.

    We don’t have decent services and pensions because the country has failed to
    Improve productivity. Corporate governance is an oxymoron.

    We have two economies the bottom 60% and the top 20%
    The balance is about to join the 60%

    On Brexit clearly what was promised in the second referendum in 2016 cannot be delivered
    The only way to break the stalemate ( in the gift of Parliament)is to revoke Article 50
    And call a General Election in the hope that more will engage with facts
    Rather than two word headlines painted on a bus

    Maybe AgeWage should get a bus!

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14426

  2. Nigel Hawkes says:

    I expect the IFS predictions will prove to be as accurate as their predictions before the referendum. All change brings opportunity and there is plenty to be optimistic about.

  3. Terence P. O'Halloran says:

    One can only hope that people learn just how risky it is ti gamble. Even the learned can be taught a lesson, however, some academics never seem to learn, IFS included.

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