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Cardano’s CDC submission and what Con Keating thinks of it

This is a critique of Cardano’s submission to the Work and Pensions Committee by Con Keating. Con’s comments are in red and are interspersed with Cardano’s which remain in black. Because of the numbers of formats of the various documents received, much of the paragraph numbering in Cardano’s document may have been lost.

There may also be occasions where comments are not properly attributed, let that be. The overall sense is obvious.


This is a review of:

Written evidence from Cardano risk Management Limited (CDC0012)

It reproduces that submission in full and offers commentary in red typeface.

Executive Summary

1.              Introduction

1.1              Cardano was founded in 2000 in the Netherlands to help pension plans achieve their financial objectives in a steady, predictable way by applying robust investment and risk management techniques.  We opened our UK business in 2007.

1.2              We currently employ around 170 people in the UK and Netherlands, servicing the investment and related risk management needs of clients whose assets total in excess of £120bn. We have a team of over 100 in London and we work with 25 UK pension schemes whose assets total over £50bn.

1.4              Cardano has previously provided input into UK pension policy design, including the ‘Reshaping workplace pensions for future generations’ consultation (November 2013).  Our submission to this Inquiry is a continuation of this input.  We have extensive experience of the Dutch pension system, which has been cited as an example for the Inquiry to consider.  We share our experiences and learnings from the Netherlands in our response.

1.6              We have limited our responses to the questions where we are able to provide meaningful input.  We have prefaced these responses with some general observations about CDC.


2. General observations about CDC

2.1 The assessment of the relevance and effectiveness of CDC depends on the purpose for which CDC is being considered.  We have set out our responses below in the context of approaches to “pay out an adequate level of index-linked pension for life but this is an ambition rather than a contractual guarantee” <added emphasis is ours>.  We also address the issue of CDC as an alternative to existing DB plans where that question has specifically been asked. See earlier comments.

2.2  We note that the recent review of Automatic Enrolment stated that “the fundamental purpose of pension systems is to replace income in retirement”.  This view is consistent with considering CDC (and alternatives) to pay a pension for life.  This is a tenuous overstatement.

However, these positions are inconsistent with the freedom and choice changes implemented in 2015. This is simply not true. One way of viewing freedoms is as the equivalent of borrowing during one’s working lifetime. They can play an important role as substitutes for precautionary savings and accommodating irregular consumption patterns.

These changes have resulted in many retirees consuming their pension savings as a one-off lump sum.  Indeed, and in doing so they have prepaid income taxes, quite likely to appoint which exceeds their otherwise lifetime total tax payments.

Many trustees, savers, sponsors and providers now appear to consider pension saving as providing a lump sum at retirement and/or an income in retirement (which might be variable or guaranteed for life).  A consistent approach to pensions policy would simplify second-order considerations such as the nature of provision. I am completely at sea as to what is meant by a second order consideration.

2.3        We agree that the success of pension provision should be assessed in the context of the index-linked pension for life that savers ultimately receive. See earlier.

However, the current focus of sponsors, savers, trustees and providers is on the size of the pot of assets (accumulated at retirement) not the lifetime income these assets will generate.  Consideration of (absolute) returns earned is another way of looking at the size of the pot of assets – the income equivalent is to consider the return earned relative to the change in the cost of the lifetime income.

A fundamental change to the way success is benchmarked, moving from pot size to income in retirement, is needed to centre the debate on the provision of an adequate level of index-linked pension for life. This is simply unimplementable – the relation between today’s pot size and that as retirement is highly uncertain as was demonstrated by the PPI work done for the TUC, added to which is the uncertainty of the future annuity rate.

2.4              The cash flows that make-up an index-linked income for life increase in-line with a specified index (usually a measure of inflation) and are payable for life. The likelihood of savers not receiving this desired index-linked income for life depends on how the method of pension provision deals with managing indexation risk and longevity risk. This is in fact the core of a well-designed CDC scheme, investment risk is exogenous, but these risks are internalised within the scheme.

2.5              CDC schemes enable groups of members to pool their assets.

 

 

Indexation risk is not directly managed.  It is; within the scheme. Smoothing investment returns, say, from year to year to try address indexation needs introduces operational and computational complexity as well as potential inter-generational inequality. There is no smoothing of investment returns, and therefore no computational complexity or possibility of intergenerational inequity.

Investing in ‘longer-term’ assets, which we have interpreted to mean assets with a higher expected long-term return but less certain pricing in the short-term, increases the difficulty in smoothing returns equitably. This states in convoluted fashion that long term assets are more volatile than short-term. This is mechanically true of bonds, but if we think of these investment assets as being those with the most predictable long-term fundamentals, quite the opposite is the case. Some forms of infrastructure investment are prime examples.

Members are clear that risk remains with them, unless they decide to join a different arrangement. The attraction of CDC is that it reduces the risk exposure of members.

 4. How would a continental-style collective approach work alongside individual freedom and choice?

 

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