As the polls closed , there could be no question who would win, Burnham was ten to one on. The big loser was reform who could not mount a credible alternative to Burnham (or maybe Burnham’s Labour).

This result showed that Burnham could beat Reform but not that Labour could

There is no doubt that Burnham will be the next Prime Minister, it is secondary as to when, will it be days or weeks? These are the Betfair odds, no different as far as Burnham’s concerned, to his winning in Makerfield.

There is a chance that Keir Starmer will make the wait some time, but I suspect he’s cooked,

When, in a few weeks, we look back at the short unhappy premiership of Keir Starmer and attempt to understand why it all went wrong, there will be no shortage of explanations. The early unforced error on winter fuel payments, the timidity of the 2024 manifesto, the lack of any obvious political touch, clear programme or serious interest in economics, the indecision, the poor personnel choices and, let’s be fair, the lousy economic inheritance.

It’s a long enough list to confound any leader, but beneath so many of these lies one central failure. Starmer was never able to convince voters, or even his own MPs, that he offered hope. The tone was set in opposition. In making Labour as small a target as possible for opponents to attack, the party demonstrated a fear that erased the reasons for optimism. The campaign was indeed the “hopeless election” many of us predicted. In ousting a hugely unpopular Conservative government, Labour could muster just 33.7 per cent of a depressed vote.

Even those who did not vote for Tony Blair will recall the sense of optimism that swept the country on his first victory. This time, few believed that things could only get better. Starmer then defined his premiership with a doomy speech in the Downing Street garden.  Voters are drawn to optimism.

They want hope for the future. Blair, David Cameron and Boris Johnson all benefited from a sunny side. They seemed at ease with people, could laugh at themselves and evinced belief in themselves and the nation.

In New York, you see it with Zohran Mamdani. It has become fashionable to deride such intangibles as charisma or optimism in favour of “grown up” managerialism. But it is only since Britain’s governance became so chaotic that competence has become more than a baseline expectation. Politics also requires a feel for the country, the ability to tell a story and carry people with you.

The question today is not if Burnham will be the next prime minister but how long it takes for Starmer to hand over the post.