John Mather – author of this piece of writing
Britain needs to stop the school yard politics of short term squabbling noise. It is negative and destructive , inhibits recovery and encourages capital to leave for more optimistic jurisdictions
A quick review of recent history
Major Economic Milestones:
🔹 Pre-Financial Crisis (2004-2007)
Robust financial services sector
Strong consumer spending and housing market
GDP growth averaging 2-3% annually
🔹 Financial Crisis Era (2008-2012)
2008: Banking sector crisis originating in UK and US
2009: Deepest recession since WWII (-4.2% GDP contraction)
2010-2012: Austerity measures and slow recovery
🔹 Recovery and Brexit Era (2013-2019)
2013-2015: Strong recovery, unemployment falling
2016: Brexit Referendum – immediate currency devaluation
2017-2019: Prolonged uncertainty affecting business investment
🔹 Recent Challenges (2020-2024)
2020: COVID-19 pandemic – 9.8% GDP contraction (worst in G7)
2021-2022: Strong recovery but inflation surge
2023-2024: Managing post-Brexit trade relationships and economic adjustment
Structural Changes: Sectoral Evolution:
Services: Remained dominant (~80% of economy)
Manufacturing: Continued decline as % of GDP
Financial Services: Remained crucial despite Brexit concerns
Technology: Emerging as growth driver🌍 Global Position:
Maintained 6th position globally despite challenges
Relative decline compared to rapidly growing Asian economies
Per capita income remained among world’s highest
The UK economy has shown remarkable resilience through multiple crises while adapting to significant structural changes including Brexit and the shift toward a more service-oriented, technology-focused economy. I have 20 years to see the recovery so capital flight will continue
Some of us might admire who is thinking of living to 100! -ed.
Henry,
“Eke out a living” means to earn just enough money to survive, often with great difficulty. It describes a struggle to make ends meet, implying that someone is managing to get by with very little, rather than thriving financially. The phrase is often used to describe a hard-working person who makes a minimal amount of money.
This is not a profile I recognise as you might expect for someone who spent 50 years in wealth management and with an AgeWage score of 100
The point is that the UK can recover but not by using the tools that produced a 50% increase in GDP over 20 years, while China doubled every 3.2 years over the same period.
The method needs to change—example for housing, factory-produced houses, not water, cement, and Polish labour.
Probably the thing that most needs to change is the concept we seem to operate under which is, the richer you are the more correct you are. I see this concept implied in so many comments on our economy, but not once have I seen any evidence to back it up!
This ex FT journalist is worth following. I have no idea how rich he is but I would not hold that against him.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-12-05/the-uk-needs-a-new-deal-without-saying-brexit?srnd=phx-opinion
Another looking forward vVeteran strategist JP Smith of the Independent Research Forum offers his own list (edited for length), which implies a really horrible year for everyone apart from Japan:
The AI “bubble” cracks due to unrealistic expectations. Private equity and corporate credit cockroaches emerge into plain sight.
Lower rates help to shore up the domestic US economy but the lack of Fed QE inhibits liquidity growth.
Inflation is subdued (thanks to energy prices, China, AI adoption).
Weak gold and silver prices as investors fade the “Great Debasement” narrative.
Global stock markets fall, in proportion to their exposure to AI.
Least-bad performers are low-beta markets and beneficiaries from lower rates like Brazil.
The euro is the weakest major currency due to toxic politics in the euro core and German reluctance to tolerate French fiscal incontinence.
Continued weakness in China (thanks to rising debt, no reforms to promote consumption, and global backlash against strong exports).
Inflation subsides in Japan as rice prices level out so bond yields are quiescent despite fiscal stimulus, and the yen makes gains.
In the UK, Labour MPs defenestrate Starmer after a wipeout in May’s [local] elections. A national government based on the right of the parliamentary Labour Party and the more pragmatic Conservatives and Liberal Democrats takes over.
Other than the overarching themes of AI and inflation, the politics of the UK and France recur. Neither has a national election scheduled in 2026; both have such a miserable status quo that something might well give. Can they keep muddling through?
Also, note surprises include a doubling and a halving of the oil price. Keeping oil prices calm and under control has been an undersung Trump 2.0 success. It shouldn’t be taken for granted.
I have been thinking about the comment “ the richer you are the more correct you are” Is this the wrong way around.
Surely the more correct you are the richer is more likely the byproduct.