For many months there was not a week when I did not publish something by Stuart and I am happy not to have to talk about the impact of pandemics through his and the actuaries brilliant posts. Today, on a day when Government has decided to commit much of our spare money to investment, I find a good reason why!

The rest is Stuart!

Two useful mortality reports were released today.

OHID (part of Department of Health and Social Care) have released analysis of recent and long-term trends in mortality in England by sex, age and cause of death, including provisional data for 2024.

The report indicates that overall mortality rates in England in 2024 were slightly lower than 2019 (the previous best year on record). This confirms earlier analysis from the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) for England and Wales. Both OHID and the CMI find that this is not true for all ages though, with younger groups experiencing higher mortality than pre-pandemic.

Cancer and cardiovascular deaths both now (i.e. 2024) lower than pre-pandemic. Drug and alcohol deaths (while only a small proportion of deaths) showing a concerning increasing trend.

Finally, the CMI have brought us right up to date with their own analysis showing that 2025 mortality rates year-to-date are similar to 2024. Currently 2025 actually appears slightly lower again, but Bank Holiday disruptions can distort things – the signal will be a clearer at the mid-year update in 4 weeks.

And again