At the time of typing (6 am on Wednesday morning) it is crystal clear to me that Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. If I am wrong, you can laugh at me!
The message from the American public is clear; it is en masse prepared to overlook the behaviour of Donald Trump because they have got his message. He has asked them if they feel better than they felt when he left the White House and the American public has said “no”, he has told them that he will kill inflation, stop wars and make America Great Again and they have believed him.
You can bang on all you like about the implausibility of his keeping these promises and of the improved economic situation of the United States but that will make no difference to the result of the election.
Simple messages, delivered with conviction get listened to and the messaging from the Democrat party for most of Biden’s period in power has been complex and under-powered, For most of the time, Kamila Harris has been nowhere to be seen.
I do not congratulate Trump, I deplore his behaviour and don’t believe his messages. But I am not American and I don’t feel let down by my Government as a high proportion of Americans clearly do. To draw parallels with other populist leaders who have captured their public’s imagination is not helpful.
Our prime minister is going to have to shake hands with Trump and do business with him and distasteful as he may see it to do so, he is going to have to get on with him.
You may call this appeasement but here we need to take a step back and recognise that we do not have the right to demand other countries – even our allies – conduct their overseas policy as we would like them to.
The messaging from Donald Trump around Ukraine, Gaza, North Korea, Russia – China is not what the UK and Europe wants to hear, but it is what we are likely going to get , especially if Trump has both Congress and the Senate aligned to him.
We need to get the message too and we need to have a clear policy to ensure that we benefit from our relationship with America. We are no longer aligned to the EU and its common market, our economic ties need to strengthen with America , even if it brings in tariffs.
So, upset that I am that America has given us the message it has, I am clear what the message is and I think we need to think long and hard how we can adjust to what is clearly a new paradigm over the pond.
Trump is a disruptor and he knows it, we must make sure that we pick up on the simple messages and adapt to them. People want simple things, cheap eggs and milk, low petrol prices and a pint off the price of beer.
We need to feel good about ourselves and our country and if sophisticated people don’t think we have things to learn about how we treat people in the UK , then they will suffer the fate of the Democrats.
Is this the best candidate that the Republicans can find?
Americas Bexit like tipping point more debt and inflation to take into account
Brilliant summary.
Great summary.
History also tells us that as a collective voters get what they need/want.
Hopefully the administration can hold sensible checks and balances around DT.
I agree with your sentiment.
The democrats became the party for the ‘intellectuals’ and saw politics largely as an intellectual exercise. They thought being smarter meant they’d win. Trump ( the billionaire entitled outsider), tapped into that, and understood working non-college degree people were concerned about migration, having a job, and that there are two genders, and didn’t want to be criminalised for saying or thinking so.
Tim Shipman of the Sunday Times offers this comment:
https://x.com/shippersunbound/status/1854055061925560448
Shipman says what baffles him is that good and serious people have seen versions of what happened tonight in the US for eight years and are still surprised that people don’t see the world as they do (eg Rory Stewart).
1) Voters think “the economy” is “can I afford to live” NOT “we are doing better nationally than others”. Inflation is politically more important than GDP.
2) Immigration matters, both the sense of control/uncontrolled and the raw numbers, particularly when money is tight. See 1.
3) Don’t take voters for fools: in this case don’t insist a clearly gaga leader is up to the job.
4) Don’t try to fight a charismatic opponent with someone who can’t answer basic questions about why they want to be in charge. The ability to communicate is not an optional extra for politicians, it is a core part of the job description.
5) Go woke, go politically broke.
6) What the metro elites regard as an illogical vote is not necessarily illogical for people who are struggling and angry – see 1,2,3,4,5.
Shipman thinks democracy matters very much and some/much of what Trump says is appalling but until his opponents learn the lessons above, voters will keep voting for someone who manages to encapsulate what they feel.
Great summary (this one!)
History also tells us that as a collective voters get what they need/want.
Hopefully the administration can hold sensible checks and balances around DT.
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