Like many liberals, I favor Kamala Harris over Donald Trump as a person. I do not have to go into the details of why. My token £1 stake was made at a time when Harris was favorite to win- returning me a profit of 87p.  That stake can now be sold for 32p on Betfair’s secondary market, suggesting that my money is as good as lost. Trump is now heavily odds on and Harris odds against. There is a tiny spread based on the capacity of Truss and Harris making it to the finishing line.

The market isn’t huge, there is £106m “matched” on Betfair, but it is probably the largest betting pool in Europe and while I do not know the precise details of how Betfair are managing the money, I am led to believe that prices are based on weight of money rather than opinion. My £1 stake is set against total money staked of £1o5,956, 967.

Those who are saying that the election is on a knife-edge, are clearly not regarding this market as representative. The delta may not be decisive but there is clear blue water between the candidate’s chances and the money says that TRUMP WILL WIN.

Which is disappointing to me – not just from a moral perspective. I am concerned for Ukraine, for the geo-politics between America and China and for the scope it gives the bad actor – Putin, to continue his expansionist policy. This is a real threat to the moral values and to the security I have grown up with, one that keeps me awake at night.

The economic impact of Trump and Harris

The American economy appears to be in a good place, if we go by its equity markets. It’s bond markets – best expressed by the yield on US Treasuries is hardly in flight at the prospect of Trump returning to the White House

Yields have risen, prices fallen in recent weeks and the graph suggests that the markets prefer Bidenomics (£2tr more debt in next five years) to Trumpenomics (£4tr more debt over the next five years). But if you do the “debt is investment” trick, you can just about make a case for this looking more like Reeves than Truss – which is why yields seem stable enough,

The Ft economist Gillian Tett is not so sure , she’s been talking to hedge fund managers who see a Minsky moment following the election

Minsky moments are points when markets collapse unexpectedly, except if you are brilliant like Minsky and have predicted it. Smart to predict a Minsky moment before the event as nobody remembers you doing so if you’re wrong and everybody lauds if you’re right (which is why people are prepared to take bets on Michelle Obama being the next president of the United States (600-1 if you’re interested).

The Market thinks Trump will win, the market is cool about Trump or Harris winning and Gillian Tett and a hedge fund manager called Tudor Jones think the market shouldn’t be.

We are braced for the impact of Trump but , not living in Ukraine – perhaps more sanguine than we should be.

The press and politicians are  still calling the election too close to call, not least because they need to hedge their bets.

We should prepare for the worst (Trump) and hope that the £105m bet on Betfair is wrong. Just as I appear to be!

I am not taking bets on the strength of America’s public finances – whoever wins. But I am praying for peace in the East and in the Middle East.