I find myself spending too much time at night listening to BBC podcasts on the immediate behaviour of the various actors in the Middle East and the impact they are having around the world. I have had to pay particular attention to world markets as I fret about the cost of selling units in my pension.
The S&P looks sensitive to events in the Middle East. The conflict seems to be playing into Donald Trump’s hands as he argues that no war happened on his watch (we all had Covid instead). Nonetheless, the barometer I use (Betfair political markets) is swinging against Harris.
Writing this, I realise I am hopelessly out of my depth as a commentator and I’m probably paying way too much notice to a war of missiles and not enough attention to the misery of Gaza where more than 41,000 have died (and what prompted the Israeli occupation).
At our church we pray for peace and we pray for peace in the East and Middle East at our coffee mornings but we can do little more than watch. We can’t measure it, we can’t manage it – war is happening out of our control.
Those who would have us believe we are immunised from conflict only see the physical luxury of our lives. I will not be threatened with a stray missile walking the streets of London, I do not have to listen for drones getting off the train in Windsor. But the threat of catastrophy is in my ears via the immediacy of the media in my ears.
Quite literally, the buds that so many of us are wearing are making us part of the agony of knowing but not doing. This makes the richest and poorest of society equal, we can all access information – so long as we have access to the web and few of us don’t have that.
..the Israeli government understands that defying the Biden administration is almost risk-free. Indeed, there could even be some benefits if it draws the US into deploying its military might against Iran.
He concludes
Every time there is a presidential election in America, there is speculation about a possible “October surprise” that upturns the race with only weeks left before the vote. Israel and Iran have just delivered this election’s October surprise, and Trump may be the beneficiary.
I guess there are some catastrophies that we can watch with shock and awe. and some we dare not even think about.
