That the American Presidential Election is too close to call is a truism. The daft electoral college system means that it not the popular vote but the votes of a few states, that determine the result. This system means that Democrats can lose to Republicans even when they command more of the national vote and regularly do.
So the actual result is a plebiscite of a small slice of America and the likelihood of a candidate winning, is based on these few “swing states”. Right now , the likelihood of Harris beating the Donald is marginally in her favor and that margin has been edging up ever since the pet-eating debate.
Betfair are very good on this , you can follow the money on their daily updated blog. This is correct as at Friday 20th September
Current Odds
- Donald Trump: 2.16
- Kamala Harris: 1.89
Last 24 hour Top Price
- Donald Trump: 2.3
- Kamala Harris: 1.92
Amount bet in last 24 hours
- Donald Trump: £582,056
- Kamala Harris: £470,400
All-time Low Price
- Donald Trump: 1.4
- Kamala Harris: 1.82
*Update on Friday 20 September
This means that despite being as low as 2/5 on, Trump is now more than 2/1 against while Kamala Harris is trading close to her lowest price of 4/5 on.
The momentum is with Harris but it is still too close to call
Presidential Election 2024: Popular Vote Winner
By comparison, Harris is a nailed on certainty to win the popular vote (though this does no get her into the White House. She is nearly five times as likely to win more votes than Trump , according to the weight of money.
Current Odds
- Donald Trump: 5.2
- Kamala Harris: 1.24
Last 24 hour Top Price
- Donald Trump: 5.6
- Kamala Harris: 1.27
Amount bet in last 24 hours
- Donald Trump: £20,434
- Kamala Harris: £55,019
All-time Low Price
- Donald Trump: 2.0
- Kamala Harris: 1.22
Again the “all-time low price suggests that Trump was at one time thought to be even money to win the popular vote, Here the momentum is even more firmly with Harris who once again is trading close to her lowest price
Trends?
The red line signifies the Republican vote (Trump), the blue line – the Democrats (Harris). Note, that Trump’s supremacy has been since rather than prior to the trials against him.
The conspiracy theories suggest that Trump needs continued attention to be drawn to him by further “outrages”. Harris seems to have worked out that the best way to defeat Trump is to let him make a fool of himself rather than pointing out his foolishness,
The other lines are others who have faded to nothing as they have been eliminated in the various conventions, it is possible that one or other of the candidates may not survive the campaign and there is a morbid market in replacement candidates. Judging by the societal behavior of Americans, this looks an outside bet worth considering.