What the polls are saying – Survation.

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I will be interested this week to see how different the results of the general election are from a general selection of polls. There are several poll of polls services for me to refer to . The BBC’s is probably the most authoritative and you can find it here.

The BBC’s poll of polls is now six days without an update, so here’s Survation’s latest update – produced yesterday and in my mailbox this morning


Survation on behalf of Good Morning Britain December 8th

  1. Sample size: 1012
  2. Fieldwork dates: 5th-7th December 2019
  1. Methodology: People aged 18+ living in the UK were interviewed by telephone using a mix of mobile and landline numbers
  2. Voting prompt: Respondents were read out the names of the parties and candidates that are standing in their own constituency

Survation interviewed 1065 people aged 18+ via telephone 26th-30th November”.

Link to data tables and methodology: 

British Polling Council Statement

All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

UK Westminster Voting Intention 

Thinking about your own constituency and the candidates likely to stand, if the general election were tomorrow, which party would you vote for? (Base: Respondents likely to vote with undecided and refused removed)

HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION* 

Conservative:        45% (+2)*
Labour:                  31% (-2)
Liberal Democrat: 11% (-)
The Brexit Party:     4% (+1)
Green:                       2% (-2)

Another party (inc Plaid Cymru and SNP): 7% (-)

*CON % week 3 was 42.3, is now 44.6 =+2.3%, which rounds to 2% (so is not +3)

DETAIL WITH “ANOTHER PARTY” LISTED

CON 45% (+2)
LAB 31% (-2)
LIB 11% (-)
BRX 4% (+1)
GRN 2% (-2)
SNP 3% (-)
PLAID 1% (-)
OTHER 4% (+1)

*HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION IS UK NOT GB (INCLUDES NI). 

Comment. Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive.

It should go without saying that this is just one poll, a snapshot of opinion and is difficult to account for what can be small changes within the margin of error, but the following general observations can be made which may help.

Voters are less undecided. As is normal as an election date draws closer, the level of respondents we interviewed who said they were undecided this week’s poll was 12%, down from 17% last week – and so some of the movement we are seeing in this week’s polling may be driven by the public, having seen the various TV debates and manifesto launches simply making their minds up.

Conservative Party Strength. The Conservative party has increased support to some extent in this polling amongst both Leave and Remain voters.

Remain 2016 Voters . Whereas last week, only 14% of those who voted remain in 2016, and had made a decision about who to vote for, said they would vote Conservative, this figure has shown some small improvement (16%). See week to week graphic below. The behaviour of Conservative and Conservative/Lib Dem swing voters, who voted remain is key component in considering potential tactical voting to come.

Leave 2016 Voters  48% of all of those we interviewed reported hearing about Brexit the most from the media during this campaign. Keeping Brexit at the front of the agenda  seems to be a strategy that is working for the Conservative party. The Conservative this week have the support of 76% of Leave voters, up from 70% in last week’s polling, and this is unlikely to be explained only by Brexit Party supporters who are almost ““fully squeezed” – by last week, 91% of Brexit Party 2019 EP voters told us they were now planning to vote Conservative.

Finally more 2017 Conservative voters can be observed  “doming home”, 87% of those that voted Conservative in at the last election told us they will vote Conservative in this election, up from 84% last week and 83% the week prior. 

Labour Party weakness . Labour are (-2) on the week in this poll, well within the margin of error, but we provide the following commentary.

While the Lib Dems have maintained national vote share despite some attrition to the Conservatives, 11% of Labour’s 2017 voters told us they will now vote for the Lib Dems (the equivalent figure was just 4% last week). 

Evidence of tactical voting?

Many Labour voters we spoke with live in seats where the tactical choice may be to vote Lib Dem if they wish to stop a Conservative winning. At the start of our polling series for Good Morning Britain, 48% of Labour told us that they would “consider voting for a party or candidate that is not their first choice in order to stop a party or candidate, they did not like, from winning” We may be seeing some evidence of tactical voting at the margin.

The level of tactical voting and coordination required to accomplish the objectives of the remain minded majority in the UK would need to be significant to overcome the Conservative lead observed in today’s poll, should it be an accurate snapshot of public opinion.

Voting intention 
Time series.
December 8th 
Conservative lead over Labour 

14%*

December 2nd 
Conservative lead over Labour 

9%

November 25th 
Conservative lead over Labour 

11%

November 18th 
Conservative lead over Labour

14%

Conservative 45% 42% 41% 42%
Labour 31% 33% 30% 28%
Liberal Democrat 11% 11% 15% 13%
The Brexit Party 4% 3% 5% 5%
Green 2% 4% 3% 3%
Another party (inc Plaid Cymru, SNP, NI parties, Independents) 7% 7% 7% 9%

*Conservative lead 13.6%, 14% rounded.

Labour’s improvement among Remain voters has stalled (graphic)


Elsewhere in the polling.

What would you say is the number one issue for you when it comes to deciding your vote?
Break with current voting intention and 2016 EU Referendum Vote.

All Current Conservative voters Current Labour voters Current Liberal Democrat voters Voted Leave 2016 Voted Remain 2016
Brexit 32% (+3) 50% (+2) 15% (-7) 51% (+12) 44% (+4) 26% (-2)
NHS 14% (-3) 3%(-4) 26% (-3) 11% (-1) 9%(-5) 18% (2)
Economy 5% (-) 7% (-1) 3% (-) 4% (-2) 4% (-2) 6% (-)

BEST PRIME MINISTER TRACKING QUESTION 
(Changes vs GMB Poll 3, fieldwork 26th-30th November 2019)

Which of the following party leaders do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Break with current voting intention.

All Current Conservative voters Current Labour voters Current Liberal Democrat voters Voted Leave 2016 Voted Remain 2016
Boris Johnson 41%(-2) 87% (-5) 6% (-4) 11% (-4) 70% (-3) 19% (+1)
Jeremy Corbyn 24% (-1) 2% (+1) 68% (-2) 14% (+1) 10% (+1) 39% (-4)
Jo Swinson 11% (-) 3% (-) 9% (+4) 54% (-4) 2% (-2) 22% (+3)
Don’t know 24%(+3) 8% (+4) 17% (+1) 21% (-7) 18% (+4) 21% (-)

MEDIA COVERAGE QUESTION 

Thinking about media coverage you have seen and heard, what issue do you think has received most coverage in this election campaign?
Brexit: 48%
The NHS: 23%
Crime and policing: 2%
Tax and spending policies: 3%
Honesty of politicians: 8%
Racism and antisemitism in political parties: 8%
Other: 2%
Don’t know: 7%

TRUST QUESTION (Changes vs GMB Poll 3, fieldwork 26th-30th November 2019)

Out of the following, who do you trust the most to tell the truth?
Break with current voting intention. Note: Sample size is lower as question options were adapted after fieldwork started.

All Current Conservative voters Current Labour voters Current Liberal Democrat voters
Boris Johnson 26%
(-2)
61%
(-4)
2%
(-3)
6%
 (+4) 
Jeremy Corbyn 19%
(-)
2%
(-)
58%
(-2)
8%
(-2)
Jo Swinson 14%
(+2)
10%
(+4)
8%
(+1)
64%
 (+13)
Nicola Sturgeon 15%
(+1)
7% (+2) 18%
(+3)
17%
(-6)
Don’t know 27%
(-)
21%
(-1)
14%
(+1)
5%
(-9)

DEBATES QUESTION 

 Which of the following statements best reflects your view?
Break with current voting intention.

All Current Conservative voters Current Labour voters Current Liberal Democrat voters
Party leaders should attend all of the televised leader debates that have been organised 63% 43% 79% 82%
Party leaders should be able to choose which of the televised leader debates they attend 30% 52% 14% 18%
Don’t know 7% 5% 7%

 

<ENDS>


Survation. is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about Survation’s services, and how you can conduct a telephone or online poll for your research needs, please visit our services page.


If you are interested in commissioning research or to learn more about Survation’s research capabilities, please contact Harry Mason on 020 3818 96612 or John Gibb on 020 3818 9661 email researchteam@survation.com or visit our services page.

For press enquiries, please call 0203 818 9661 or email media@survation.com

BPC Statement: All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.


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About henry tapper

Founder of the Pension PlayPen, Director of First Actuarial, partner of Stella, father of Olly . I am the Pension Plowman
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