By far away the most interesting piece of election analysis is in this week’s FT.
We are so used to reading about the Liberals being squeezed by the first past the post electoral system that it comes as a shock to discover that – for reasons of a collapsing vote from the Conservatives and a “vote from nowhere” for “Reform” a split right wing vote will disenfranchise the right wing of British voters.
The second chart is even more extraordinary as it suggests that the skewed nature of seat/vote allocation results in extremely low voter satisfaction in the UK.
According to the FT’s UK poll tracker, the aggregate of conservative and reform votes is only five percent below the Labour Vote with the Liberals and the Greens holding the balance of power
And yet the translation of votes to seats shows off the scale craziness
It is wrong to see the right wing as the politics of power and entitlement. It may contain the Etonian faction of the Conservative party but it also contains millions of people who have views which spring from a sense of being British working class.
If the 36% of the population who vote for Reform and the Conservatives do end up with less than 100 seats (and some predictions are for considerably less), then there will be what horseracing calls a “stewards inquiry” on the result.
It would be wrong to compare this electoral injustice to previous injustices relating to minor parties. This exclusion is not a disenfranchisement of minority views but a wholesale shut-out of the second most popular political persuasion.
The argument for proportional representation has been that it leads to more consensual , less volatile Government. And that Governments would be more consistent from one to another as a result.
However, the implosion of the Conservative party and the rise of Reform looks like creating a more extreme problem which gifts Nigel Farage a copper-bottomed argument that the way we vote is fundamentally undemocratic.
As a forty year fan of proportional representation, for reasons explained above, I will agree with Farage. First past the post is not unfair on the Liberals or Reform or the Conservatives, it is unfair full stop and that the winners this time are the Labour party is not a left-wing conspiracy but the result of failing to address this problem by successive Governments.
As the Conservatives have been in Government for the last fourteen years , the blame cannot be pinned on Labour who have had no opportunity to change things. But I have seen no indication that they have seen anything wrong with the current system over this time.
The question that looks like being asked after July 4th is whether any party can justify the craziness of first past the post any longer. The new found enthusiasm from electors to vote as they choose, and not according to heritage means that “likes” are expected to translate into “winners”.
Eurovision, Britain’s Got Talent, X-Factor, Strictly – all operate on a voting system that is seen to properly reflect the general vote. The pool of intentions determines the outcomes.
For this reason, however diluted, people think their vote counts. There is very little tactical voting (other than perhaps to rid a competition of an extremely unpopular act). What is more, people are extremely enthusiastic, paying to vote and doing it again and again.
What could be more different than the dismal results of this survey?
The FT urges us to brace ourselves for the most distorted result in British electoral history. It is not the result but the impact of that result, which we need to brace for.