Don’t believe foolish talk that this is a wide open race to be the next PM, it isn’t , it is a three nag sprint not the donkey derby we had earlier this autumn.
Boris is back, he was still Prime Minister last month, he may be prime minister again this month. He has the backing of the usual suspects. He does not have the backing of Matthew Paris whose article in the Times is worth reading.
Johnson is a petty criminal sitting on the back benches who’s been on holiday till now. Cincinnatus went into exile and did some hard work for a few years, Johnson should try it.
Officially only Penny Mordaunt has declared she is running but we know from Guido that Rishi already has 112 supporters, passing the 100 threshold last night, at the time of writing, Johnson has around 71 and Mordaunt a feeble 25. You can find out who your fave MPs are backing on Guido’s list – here. FYI Guy Opperman has come out for Rishi, Alex Burkhart is one of 153 undisclosed Tory MPs. For those who prefer to scroll than click – I’m listing those who’ve reported their intentions at the end of this blog/
All of which makes Guido cry
“Guido is calling it for Rishi as the first to pass the 100 nominations threshold, thanks to Matt Hancock. Which means he just needs to declare his candidacy… unless he is contemplating a deal…
The Telegraph use a basket of bookies odds to predict who’s winning
There is a lot of fun to be had by checking the minute by minute price on betfair. Currently it is showing much the story of the chart but at one point yesterday you could have got better odds on Rishi than Boris
Betfair celebrated a few minutes later with a tweet
🚨 𝐁𝐈𝐆 𝐍𝐄𝐖𝐒 developing this lunchtime…
Boris Johnson is now the odds-on 𝐅𝐀𝐕𝐎𝐔𝐑𝐈𝐓𝐄 to become the next Prime Minster. pic.twitter.com/nCEZAdK9Kq
— Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) October 21, 2022
which the FT interpreted as a signal to the gilts market
UK gilt yields have jumped sharply in the past hour or so following news that Boris Johnson is now favourite, in betting markets, to be the next PM.
NB all bonds moving a lot today but UK more than most
Chart is the two year gilt yield pic.twitter.com/I48CwbXFWQ
— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) October 21, 2022
Immediately after Liz Truss’ announcement, when markets still didn’t think Johnson and his supporters would have the brass-neck to run , you could have got 27-1 against the bloated tourist returning to No 10.
At the time or writing Sunak is moving away in the betting market
The betting market seems to be losing confidence in Johnson . Sunak is on this evidence seven times more likely to win than Boris. pic.twitter.com/KMf1j7ykMm
— Henry Tapper (@henryhtapper) October 22, 2022
. My brother makes a compelling argument that Johnson, were his candidature to go to the Conservative members – would win whatever the parliamentary party (or the bookies) thought.
Wiki on Cincinnatus.
Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus (c. 519 – c. 430 BC) was a Roman patrician, statesman, and military leader of the early Roman Republic who became a legendary figure of Roman virtue—particularly civic virtue—by the time of the late Republic.
Cincinnatus was an opponent of the rights of the plebeians (the common citizens) who fell into poverty because of his son Caeso Quinctius‘s violent opposition to their desire for a written code of equally enforced laws. Despite his relatively old age, he worked his own small farm until an invasion prompted his fellow citizens to call for his leadership. He came from his plough to assume complete control over the state but, upon achieving a swift victory in only 16 days, relinquished his power and its perquisites and returned to his farm. His success and immediate resignation of his near-absolute authority with the end of this crisis (traditionally dated to 458 BC) has often been cited as an example of outstanding leadership, service to the greater good, civic virtue, humility, and modesty.
The alternative view
During the decemvirate, he ran unsuccessfully for a position in their government in 450 BC but Livy notes his involvement in the discussion about opening the consulship to plebeians.
Possibly, he returned as dictator in 439 BC to defend Rome against the conspiracy the prefect L. Minucius Augurinus alleged Spurius Maelius was plotting against the Republic. When Spurius Maelius ignored his summons, he was killed by Cincinnatus’s master of horse and any plot collapsed. He presumably died sometime soon afterwards.
(Guido has verified all names to be true)
The roots of this fiasco are in the 2016 referendum.
Surely one lesson that needs to be is that Trump style politics divides and rules with the clear objective of enriching the players at the expense of the general public and democratic institutions.
One outrageous example is the Public Duty Cost Allowance
I hear it is unlikely that Liz Truss will get it in full, perhaps it could be pro-rated for days in office relative to the five year term (with a cap at £115,000 pa). We could end up dishing these things out to half the Cabinet by 2025!
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