The following thread is from Simon Kuestenmacher
Simon
Simon’s one of the clearest thinkers on Geography I’ve read, maybe because he writes like Abba sang, as a European in a second tongue (making his words stand out as each is thought through and cliche-free) . Maybe it’s because he thinks in images and projects his thoughts through maps and charts. Simon is German by birth but Australian by residence (which explains the Aussie references in his thread).
Anyway, I think this is as close to an explanation of Putin’s thought processes as I’ve read, and it’s both a speculative and thought-provoking thread, thanks Simon (you can follow his twitter feed using the link above).
I think looking at Russian demographic data can help to better understand Putin’s game. A thread🧵
— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) February 26, 2022
Russia has the 9th largest population and the 12th largest economy in the world. GDP is US$1.6 trillion GDP per year. Australia (which has six times fewer residents) creates just as much GDP. Russia’s economy still suffers from economic sanctions from the 2014 Crimea annexation. pic.twitter.com/DMz6A85zvH
— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) February 26, 2022
Problem is that GDP per capita didn’t manage to come anywhere near that of developed capitalist countries like Australia. Also the last decade saw economic stagnation. Time to impress your citizens with some sort of foreign excursion? pic.twitter.com/eQh9rSgxgj
— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) February 26, 2022
The Kremlin amped up the birth rate from an incredibly low 1.157 kids per woman in 1999 to a rather impressive 1.777 in 2015. Such a turnaround is very impressive and helped to slow demographic shrinkage. pic.twitter.com/vlPT02wwsR
— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) February 26, 2022
Male life expectancy was in large part improved by switching drinking preferences from dangerous home-distilled vodka to cheap beer. Men might still be alcoholics but booze doesn’t kill them anymore… But I digress…
— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) February 26, 2022
1999 saw max population decline. Putin oversaw a demographic turnaround. 2008 to 2019 even saw a mini population boom but the next decades will see strong declines. From that perspective now would be a great time for a geopolitical stunt of sorts. pic.twitter.com/7DhJk4d7Fk
— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) February 26, 2022
1999 saw max population decline. Putin oversaw a demographic turnaround. 2008 to 2019 even saw a mini population boom but the next decades will see strong declines. From that perspective now would be a great time for a geopolitical stunt of sorts. pic.twitter.com/7DhJk4d7Fk
— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) February 26, 2022
It’s a bit scary to look at demographic through Putin-coloured glasses but I found it an helpful exercise in putting current events into a larger context. Share this around if you found it helpful too. Thank you!
— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) February 26, 2022
It’s particularly scary when trying to understand why in realpolitik, the killing of thousands of civilians as is happening in Mariapol, becomes an end to justify a geopolitical means,
Russia bombs theatre in Ukrainian city of Mariupol where hundreds of civilians were sheltering, deputy mayor says https://t.co/KPOwGIUDBQ
— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) March 16, 2022
The word ‘children’ was painted in large Russian script on the ground outside the Mariupol Drama Theatre, Maxar satellite images collected on March 14 showed. Ukraine accused Russia of bombing the theater on Wednesday. Russia denies the attack https://t.co/JtB56K8eCz pic.twitter.com/iV13h0dBXm
— Reuters (@Reuters) March 16, 2022