I have had first hand experience of the impact of opening up the UK to tourism this summer. Shaftesbury, the town where I grew up , had its highest incidence of Covid cases last week.
In Orkney , in the week I was on holiday, the islands saw 12 new cases, not many by the standards of our conurbations, but these took total cases since March 2020 from 166 to 178.
The third wave of Covid is arriving like a long ripple across virgin sand , rather than the crashing force of waves one and two. However, for those who are in hospital and especially those in ICUs, the impact of this fresh wave is just as distressing.
The Covid-19 actuaries continue to chart these waves by interpreting detailed studies and making them accessible to those without their analytic skills .
Below, I reproduce a thread of tweets from Adele Groyer, looking at the casualties of the third wave. The numbers relate to England, Wales and Northern Ireland and don’t include Scotland.
Here is a brief summary of this week’s @ICNARC report of intensive care admissions and outcomes on behalf of @COVID19actuary.
3,744 third-wave ICU patients (from 1 May 21) are compared to 25,846 patients admitted in the second-wave (1 Sep to 30 Apr). 1/10 pic.twitter.com/HvSfysJ3Pf
— Adele Groyer (@AdeleGroyer) August 21, 2021
The North West has had the highest rate of admissions to critical care in this wave at 15 per 100k population, followed by London at 10 per 100k.
N. Ireland has had a high rate of admissions in recent weeks and now has the 4th highest cumulative rate of 7.5 per 100k. 2/10 pic.twitter.com/K0wuhEPBGz
— Adele Groyer (@AdeleGroyer) August 21, 2021
Total hospital admissions have been high but steady since late July, while critical care admissions have fallen. Critical care admissions were ~10% of admissions but are now at ~6% 3/10 pic.twitter.com/C1tqEqzYtv
— Adele Groyer (@AdeleGroyer) August 21, 2021
Although admissions have fallen, the number of Covid patients in critical care has increased slightly with the average in the most recent 7 days 4.5% higher than in the previous 7 days.
On average there were 962 patients in the 7 days to 19 Aug. This is ~20% of capacity. 4/10 pic.twitter.com/RyZmbqclMo— Adele Groyer (@AdeleGroyer) August 21, 2021
A sign of how much pressure critical care units are under is the % of patients who are transferred to another hospital for comparable care. This % is increasing and is approaching 5%.
This is still lower than the 11% peak seen in January but the upward trend is a concern. 5/10 pic.twitter.com/geDAxxPMta— Adele Groyer (@AdeleGroyer) August 21, 2021
A reminder of patient characteristics:
– average age in this wave is 50 vs 59 in the previous wave
Over-represented demographics:
– Males (60% of patients)
– People of Black and Asian ethnicity
– People from more deprived circumstances
– People from major conurbations 6/10 pic.twitter.com/YuOa4UK3uq— Adele Groyer (@AdeleGroyer) August 21, 2021
Patient characteristics by prior health status:
– Proportion pregnant is increasing. Was less than 10% in Jan, now 20%
– % requiring assistance with daily activities is falling – now less than 10% reflecting younger age
– % with severe co-morbidities is steady at ~10% 7/10 pic.twitter.com/0ukgaHAYJH— Adele Groyer (@AdeleGroyer) August 21, 2021
28-day mortality has reduced considerably since March/April 2020. In June mortality rates were 20% vs 30% predicted allowing for patient characteristics. In July mortality rates increased to 25%. This may indicate increased pressures and patient triage. 9/10
— Adele Groyer (@AdeleGroyer) August 21, 2021
A simple message – get vaxed.
There will be further waves, but they are unlikely to be destructive as previous ones, unless, that is, you are unvaccinated. Adele Groyer has produced graphical evidence from the latest numbers that show just how much protection those with vaccination are getting.
Here is the maths showing that #vaccineswork against severe outcomes for Delta.
The hospitalisation and death counts are taken as the difference between those reported to 15 August and those reported to 2 August, the latter from Technical Briefing 20 2/3 pic.twitter.com/VbseHbYu8q
— Adele Groyer (@AdeleGroyer) August 20, 2021
thanks to Adele and the Covid Actuaries for keeping us informed in these simple and effective ways.
Covid-arg.com
