Please @guardian don’t throw basic statistics out of the window just to get a scary headline. 79 deaths out of 775 ICU patients is not a 50% survival rate. You can’t just consider the deaths and the discharges and ignore those receiving continuing care! https://t.co/yrMVIq90lD
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) March 28, 2020
We need to get smart about what we’re in for with this Covid19
Depending on how we behave, between 60 and 80% of us will get this infection in one way or another.
The model that has informed UK strategy on COVID-19 has been published. The illustration below lays out the stark reality that even with best efforts to #FlattenTheCurve we will still exceed critica bed capacity many times over.https://t.co/8b2dtTcEwS pic.twitter.com/i8z7ohKdpN
— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) March 16, 2020
We should prepare to be infected without fear of the unknown. This blog is the information I’ve collated for myself and if I’m wrong on any of this stuff, please contact me on email@example.com and put me right.
Here is a chart that I’ve found useful. It was sent me by an Indian friend who is in hospital – now recovering from infection with Covid-19. He has been tested and is using the test to determine how far he is towards the end of his convalescence.
This tells me that when people are infected , they need to think four weeks before they can come out of convalescence.
PCM identifies presence of the bad guy and stands for “polymerase chain reaction” it’s a way of looking at DNA to tell if Covid19 is there
IgM is the emergency good guy and stands for Immunoglobulin M which is the biggest antibody that we produce to fight Covid 19. Not around for long, this guy hands off to IgG.
IgG is the long-term good guy and stands for Immunoglobulin G and immunises us against Covid19 coming back.
It takes a fair bit of time to get through this disease. The vast majority of us will be out for the best part of a month,
Covid19 infection has a typical pattern but for about a fifth of people’s illness is not typical.
The odd thing is that while mild symptoms are most common, some people get no symptoms at all , some people get it really bad and a very few people get a massive attack that can kill even the youngest and healthiest.
Some people who carry the virus remain asymptomatic, meaning they do not show any symptoms.
The virus multiplies in the respiratory tract and can cause a range of symptoms,
There are mild cases, which look like the common cold, which have some respiratory symptoms, sore throat, runny nose, fever, all the way through pneumonia. And there can be varying levels of severity of pneumonia all the way through multi-organ failure and death.
However, in most cases, symptoms have remained mild.
Experts have data on about 17,000 cases and, overall, 82 percent of those are mild, 15 percent of those are severe and 3 percent of those are classified as critical.
Occasionally things go crazy, this is known as a cykotine storm, a study published on January 24 in The Lancet medical journal found a “cytokine storm” in infected patients who were severely ill. A cytokine storm is a severe immune reaction in which the body produces immune cells and proteins that can destroy other organs.
It’s these freak storms that kill young people with no medical history.
So this is what I draw from this
For 4 out of 5 of us, (including my Indian friend) and others who I know have got it, they’re on the 28 day cycle in the illustration
A few of us will get it and not know it (asymptomatic)
A few of us will get it real bad (and need a respirator) – which will be really tough and could kill the weakest of us.
A very few of us will get a Cykotine storm which will likely kill us.
There are existential threats to all of us and they’re not just from this virus. Allowing us to live our lives in the fear of the worst case , means months of misery for us all.
We need to be resilient and adopt a positive mental attitude, follow the instructions given to us and stay strong and fit.
Sources as per links