Some home truths for those who think that the fall in inflation spells the turning point and things can only get better.
- Because the rate of inflation is falling , doesn’t mean prices are falling
- The main costs we incur, transport and housing remain high. The cost of repairing and insuring cars has shot up, lower inflation is yet to feed into lower interest rates.
- Many people are still coming off fixed rate mortgages and adjusting to higher variable rates
- The cupboard is bare, many of us have burned through what little savings we having heating and eating. Many of us are still paying for Christmas.
To suggest that we should be feeling good about turning a corner is a stretch. Although we are providing better safety nets (minimum and living wage, state pension , some later life benefits) we have an increasing problem with sickness among the working population, much of it sickness of brain, heart and spirit.
Two close members of my family are long term sick with mental health issues, I know they would like to work and I know how impossible it looks to them to work with their conditions, both are in the prime of their lives.
The long tail of Covid is a part of this, but there is more than that about the malaise for so many, work isn’t quite what it was. In this , I support Mel Stride. We need to return work to being part of the answer, not the problem.
Here I return to my thoughts about pensions. For me, the regular increments in the size of my workplace pension pot are a confirmation that not only have I worked productively, but that the point where I no longer need to rely on work, draws closer.
This simple fact escapes most pension experts. Work is boring, pensions are boring , there are natural synergies in the Department of Work and Pensions which are ingrained in our DNA!
The long tail of the cost of living crisis (which really happened as we came off QE) will be felt for years to come. We have only one immediate antidote to the malaise – which is work – and only one long term answer to the chronic problem of work – which is pensions.
The great rotation from dependency as a child , though independent adult life to later life dependency as we decline is managed by a system of provision that is much greater than the short term financial shocks such as what we’re going through. This great rotation cannot be disrupted by political parties. We will work , we will save, we will pay taxes and receive benefits and ultimately we will go to our deaths with a modicum of dignity.
How well we manage this great cycle is to no small part “our business”, we are not simply cogs in a welfare state, we have self-determination. But it’s worth considering that whatever politicians say about corners, we know better. Things are pretty bad for many people – relatively bad for most people – we are not at a high ebb in our fortunes.
To suppose that we are, that falling inflation and the prospect of lower interest rates makes it alright, is naive. Household economics tells me that we are not out of this yet. When I walk around London and see the level of deprivation that many of us live in , I remember that though the economic crisis is over, the crisis for our living standards continues.