The Labour vote has delivered it a big majority but it is (at time of writing) less than 2% higher than in 2019. The story of this election is not about more people voting Labour but of less people voting Conservative.
There are currently two conservative parties and the one with the big C has lost so much of its support to Reform that it is facing having not many more than 100 MPs in Westminster.
This was theoretically possible from reading the polls but there is a world of difference between theory and practice. This election was unusual because the theoretical result prior to the Prime Minister calling it was realised on polling day.
This was also an election of personal empowerment.
Voters voted as they thought and not along historical lines or in line with national trends.
Jonathan Ashworth lost his Leicester seat , despite being a potential Cabinet Minister. His constituency preferred a Muslim candidate. Jeremy Corbyn was returned with a big majority. Kier Starmer had his majority reduced by 6000.
Nothing can be taken for granted going forwards
This election was no respecter of reputations. Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps and Steve Baker are no longer in parliament. Reform got more votes than the Liberals and not many less than the Conservatives.
But votes do not transfer into seats. This chart shows just how low a voter base, Labour’s super-majority is secured against.
The Reform Party are projected to win only 4 seats on 14% of the poll, the Liberals seats have surged, but few more people have voted for them than four years ago. The distribution of votes in a low turn-out elections still seems manifestly unfair. Though not to the Liberals who for once punched to their weight
Personal stories
Personally I am glad to see Kevin Hollinrake, Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugendhat back in parliament.
And I am pleased to see this for Yeovil
Grim up north for Pension Ministers
I am sad to see Guy Opperman leave parliament.
Labour gain Hexham
The constituency has been held by the Conservatives for 100 years and has never been won by Labour before
Transport minister Guy Opperman is beaten, Joe Morris is the new MP pic.twitter.com/82mu99fShm
— Tom Sheldrick (@TomSheldrickITV) July 5, 2024
Paul Maynard , our most recent pensions minister also lost his seat in Blackpool North.
Out West – Torsten Bell has been elected.
Torsten Bell, ex chair of the think tank the Resolution Foundation, has been elected as a Labour MP.
Bell has previously described the rule that allows pensions to be passed on totally free of inheritance tax (or even income tax too if someone dies before 75), as “ludicrous”. https://t.co/WmXUNrk0Hv
— Josephine Cumbo (@JosephineCumbo) July 5, 2024
Different down south
I’m from the South of England so this is how the election impacted people like me.
I am sorry to see the Conservatives squeaked home in Windsor – where my partner lives and in North Dorset, where my father stood for the Liberals.
North Dorset was not a marginal but the South of England has become of marginal interest to the previously dominant Conservative party
Financial Karma
The most dramatic result of the night, the vote over Liz Truss, shows that no matter how matters have been smoothed over, the nation has not forgiven her for the (£166bn) loss to their pensions and the massive increase in their mortgage payments. I hate to be personal, but Truss’s departure as an MP was as ignominious as her departure from number 10.
Liz Truss: goooone! pic.twitter.com/0Go6E5X1tc
— Max Uechtritz (@plesbilongmi) July 5, 2024
The disastrous campaign – a “sobering verdict”.
For years the Liberal party has argued for proportionate representation. This result suggests they are the winners of a first past the post system (along with Labour). Ironically, the Conservative party is the big loser along with Reform. The left used its vote efficiently, the right were hopelessly disorganised.
It is easy to forget this morning that it was the Conservatives who called the timing of this election. It is hard to understand how Sunak and his strategists ignored the threat posed by Nigel Farage.
The Scottish question
The Scottish National Party is predicted to send less than ten MPs down south and having been the third party, are now struggling to have a say in Westminster.
Labour are now back in Scotland as the largest party and by some way. Whatever questions the Scots have, they are likely to be asked with a considerably weaker voice.
A disaster for the Conservative Party
The lowest turn-out, the lowest proportion of the vote for the two major parties and the worst result for the Conservatives since the 1830 reform act.
The Conservative party, a massively well funded party that until this election owned the majority of the British media has lost control not just of itself, but of its embedded support.
Farage clearly feels his job disabling the Conservatives is done. He is now turning his sights on the Labour Party whose hold on its vast majority is supported by only a third of a very low vote.
Unless the Conservatives can find a new narrative, a competent Labour Government has little to fear from them but a lot to fear from Reform.
The saddest thing for Conservatives, entitled for so long to power, is that they are currently a political irreverence.
For the first time ever, the House of Parliament sits in a Labour constituency
