Latest YouGov voting intention (12-13 Jun): Reform now 1pt ahead of the Tories for the first time, although this is still within the margin of error
Con: 18% (no change from 10-11 Jun)
Lab: 37% (-1)
Reform UK: 19% (+2)
Lib Dem: 14% (-1)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (+1)… pic.twitter.com/brNybrUCbC— YouGov (@YouGov) June 13, 2024
Those who worry about inter generational divides can take some comfort that according to the latest (and I suspect the soon to be famous) YouGov poll published yesterday, the Conservatives are dislike by young and old. The main difference is that while they young prefer a variety of alternatives, the older voter is getting behind Reform as their party of choice.
This is extraordinary (again!). In @yougov latest Conservatives are in 5th place with the under 50’s. Behind Labour, LibDems, Greens and Reform UK. pic.twitter.com/rITd34s2gU
— Paula Surridge (@p_surridge) June 13, 2024
The FT’s poll of polls shows much the same thing , though not so dramatically
Both Reform and the Liberals are picking up the protest vote
Let’s not ignore the biggest winners in this mid election YouGov poll are the Liberals, almost certainly buoyed by a flamboyant leader who genuinely engaged us with his life split between politics and caring. The Liberals and Greens offer voters a refuge from Reform and a protest vote that matters.
The big losers at the moment are not Conservatives (whose support is moribund) but Labour who are failing to ignite much fire behind the campaign. The scale of their victory may depend on whether people can think of a good thing to say about them rather than out of fear.
Labour down 9% since Sunak announced the election! https://t.co/Zzodh7ti6s
— Wolf 🐺 (@WorldByWolf) June 13, 2024
Personally , I think Labour is on a glidepath to victory and is prepared to shed growth in return for less volatility. It looks to me that the disaffected are casting their intentions on alternatives , rather than getting inspired by the Labour campaign.
But what is happening in this six week campaign , is that the support for the Conservative party is disappearing in all directions and the only thing that can challenge Labour is the diversity of options available to voters.
Last night’s 7 way tussle once again showed Rayner and Mordaunt talking over each other to a point where we weren’t able to work out what either were saying. In the meantime we heard very clearly from all the other parties.
However, this fracturing of the vote, looks like translating into very few minority party seats (other than the 30 seats the SNP would gain from 3% of the vote). The political situation – should things remain the same is disastrous for Conservatives and splendid for the Labour party.
FT seat calculator based on latest Yougov results